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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (34521)	2/27/2002 8:56:34 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev, So you don't see a significant drop in the market in the coming weeks? 1600 by sometime in June almost seems bullish to me. <g> I am looking for a rapid decline that ends in panic selling on the Nasdaq sometime soon...maybe a few weeks at most. Basically looking for a sharp decline that ends in possibly a crash. I can't believe how bearish I am at this point.<g> Am I right to assume that you don't expect a drop to mid 1600s before the strong rally that the turnips are predicting at end of this month or early next? thanks. jmho.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (34521)	2/28/2002 3:54:14 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Respond to of 99280

If you advertise it, they will buy it! I have a similar, but not identical take on the coming months, based on Long-Term Stock Market Expectations. Just within the past week, the major Mutual Funds have stepped in to once again begin promoting the Stock Market as a "sure thing" over the long haul. John Bogle was on at least two financial shows, although his 5% to 8% annualized gains estimate for the next 10 yrs was hardly a strong endorsement for the Stock Market. More optimistically, both Fidelity and Franklin-Templeton placed major ads in the Wall St. Journal today (Wednesday), saying for the 1st time in a while that stocks always go up over the long haul. Fidelity: "for the long term, the market has been the place to be." Franklin-Templeton: "investors who stayed in the market for the full 10-year period ended 1/31/02 enjoyed an average annual total return of 12.98%...history shows that even the most significant market declines in the market have always been followed by subsequent stronger gains." Music to my ears! This set of indicators leads by 1.5 to 2.5 months, and since the low in sentiment was around the start of February, the Market low should be between mid-March and mid-April. Then a major intermediate term uptrend should begin. So far, there's been no corresponding advertising or promotion for the Nasdaq or Info Tech, but that sector had actually gone negative at the start of February. Recently, the negatives have disappeared, and long term sentiment has totally disappeared. We'll have to wait to see if anything positive develops, so that the Nasdaq can participate in the Spring Rally.