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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bambs who wrote (58095)	2/28/2002 9:51:50 AM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Interesting. By 2003, we should be seeing a rampup of service provider spending across the board for networking as bandwidth supply becomes untenably scarce. This will pump up revenue growth for the most prominent networkers like Cisco. And you think this growth period will coincide with a stock price one third of where we're at today? I don't buy it. A thought experiment on this can help. If I want to save money, I can stop eating. That will save me maybe $25 per day. I can probably go a week without real debilitating effects from the lack of food, but after that it will start to affect everything I do and will eventually cause my demise. So more than likely I'll recognize that it was a temporary cash flow help, but I need to spend the money to survive. Service providers are in the same shape. They can hold out for a year or two, but much beyond that, they will start to lose customers whose demand is not getting fulfilled. Then when they lose enough customer, they don't have the revenue to support positive cash flows anymore. Then it's only a matter of time before they go bankrupt. Anyway, I think it is more likely that we see $5-6 within the next 2-3 months or even this coming October, than seeing the same in 2003. But I don't think it is probable at all.