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To: 16yearcycle who wrote (10666)	2/27/2002 10:09:21 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

>>think the period from 2000-2020 is going to look an awful lot like a replay of 1965-1982. That means I get to be frustrated, then dead! Any idea what the next McDonalds is? :)

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (10666)	2/27/2002 10:33:06 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

"I think the earnings news shocked Ciena and, in turn, it was a surprise to ONI," says Gabriel Lowy, an analyst with Crédit Lyonnais Securities Inc.. "There's a 75 percent, or better, chance that the companies will merge as planned. However, I think there's a 50 percent probability that the terms of the deal will change in ONI's favor." lightreading.com

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (10666)	2/27/2002 10:34:58 PM
From: Sonny Blue	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

I'd define the bubble period as from Fall'95 to Spring'00. The bubble was just a coincident convergence of 3 major technology forces: 1. Telecom buidup due to the 1996 Telecom Deregulation Act 2. Internet/Dotcom bubble started sometime in 1995 (on the verge of Netscape IPO) 3. The wireless bubble (QCOM as a poster child)

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (10666)	2/27/2002 11:11:49 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Respond to of 57684

washingtonpost.com

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (10666)	2/27/2002 11:45:11 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 57684

First, thanks to all for the bubble comments!! I was thinking "the bubble" started in December 1998 with the infamous Amazon 300mm quarter, and ended in March 2000 ironically, with the IPO of webmethods, one of my favorite stocks. wrt Eugene Kearney's post, That slope of 90-95 repeated here until nearly the end of the decade gets us back over 5000 on the nasdaq. I think the demographic tidal wave has not been played out yet. Looking back from 2030, I think the period from 2000-2020 is going to look an awful lot like a replay of 1965-1982. What am I missing here.... it looks like the dow was essentially flat over the 1965-1982 period, most of the time treading between 850-1000, with the exception of the 74 bear mkt period. Assuming you are correlating this to current naz, how can we see a rise to naz 5000 from here within that scenario? L