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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (10839)	2/28/2002 3:06:10 AM
From: macavity	Respond to of 19219

Sentiment Indicators. Bobby I am with you on this. The market by its nature will not allow an 'indicator' to work if it is over-observed. My guess is Rydex is in this category. Creative interpretations are required and in my view it is perhaps better to look at trends in sentiment indicators rather than levels. Extremes are quite obvious, all you have to do is listen to people talking about the market. The bottom line is this. Sentiment is not always wrong even when it is at extremes. All we can say is that when the market turns at a sentiment extreme, the reversal will be usually explosive. There were tonnes of Commercials shorting tech in Q4-2000, they were taken to the cleaners. They were right, but their timing was off. I hope J.T. is not taking this all too personally. My weekly indicators for some sectors are getting better, but I am not bullish for my time scales as the trend is down, and I do not believe we have hit a bearish sentiment extreme. Wednesday's action looked spooky - lots of dark candles from up openings. Long MLNM, CRA Short SMH -macavity

To: bobby beara who wrote (10839)	2/28/2002 9:46:08 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Anyone who comes on MITA with intent to deliver a message that my method works and yours doesn't and simply intends to discredit the sentiment analysis coming across like an expert in an area they admit are not experts in....forget it. I have seen too many threads blown up by mystic wizards and I don't intend to sit here and do nothing about it and watch MITA disintegrate and fall away. I pride myself that this is an unmoderated thread and all are welcome to post their views... but they must follow the threadheader guidelines and in my view Steve had crossed the line... Steve is comparing apples to oranges and my time frame to make money is longer than his. When I have had disagreements I feel I have shown remarkable restraint up to a point and when it crosses the line I speak my mind: I don't go chasing Steve or anyone else on their threads and say I think your wrong and persist in condescending behavior .. When I had a disagreement with you I felt I was being backstabbed and you know the reasons why but we both moved on like civil adults. With DLR I caught him in a dead lie but I never posted the evidence to show where the lie occurred. To this day I have the evidence but restrained from posting it because another party was involved. And if you would like to know who that was I can certainly pm you. In all cases in short order it was water off a ducks back and I moved on unless there was chatter about it I thought needed clarification. I think what has been most confusing for people using MITA analysis re rydex #'s is why I post Bullish (or Bearish) tags on certain groups and when the market keeps going in the opposite direction think the tags don't work. Rydex sentiment analysis for me was meant for 'position' trading and not 'day' trading. My profile is clear that I am a 'position trader'. I have never given a detailed explanation for the tags and my in depth analysis and thought process, but I intend to do so when I get my website up. My website might not be up until as late as August September this year when the kids go back to school from summer break. Back to my quasi-hermitage. Best Regards, J.T.