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Strategies & Market Trends : Paint The Table -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Augustus Gloop who wrote (16701)	2/28/2002 4:03:37 AM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23786

Views from Jorjtopia or When will Jorj cover all of his shorts and go clown long? Well, lessee.....I am a tad bit more bearish than most other people that I see on SI....I think we are on our way to testing the Sept lows. I think we were going to those levels anyway before the attack and that event just hastened the drop. Unfortunately, I think that the unexpected catalyst reset the meter to zero and we have to go through the process again on a more controlled basis. I don't think that the similarities in the big rounding top on the weekly comp chart right now to the one leading into September, is a coincidence. Notice that the bullish percentage for the peak of the second rounding top is within .12 of the previous rounding top. stockcharts.com[e,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9][j3056158,y]&listNum=1 The bullish percent at the september lows was around 21. We are currently at 41.72. That is 20pts difference. So my first condition is: BPCOMPQ value in the low 20s Next is the RSI. On the weekly chart we are currently a little above 40. In September, we went into the high 20s. My second condition is: RSI on the weekly comp below 30 Next would be the VIX. The high there was around 57. I don't think that we will get that kind of fear without a similar attack, so I am shooting for a lower number. Looking at the 2pt chart, I get a nice BRL at 48. stockcharts.com My third condition is: VIX in the high 40s. I will be watching the BPCOMPQ at around 30 too. This is where we saw a bottom in the April 2001 lows. I do believe that it is entirely possible to drop another 300pts from here. So, I am obviously not bullish. But, like the old mania times, we often confused brains with a bull market. I don't want to get caught in the same trap with the 'brains for a bear market' concept. I want to catch the next turn. And I never want to lose sight that somewhere down the road, someone may look at my views and say "he was the perfect contrary indicator at the bottom".