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Technology Stocks : Juniper Networks - JNPR -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chojiro who wrote (3023)	2/28/2002 7:16:27 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Respond to of 3350

Hi Bruce. Sounds like you have had a wonderful and relaxing vacation. I often times like to get away for a few days at a time and not even concern myself with what the markets are doing. I highly recommended it. Often and in quantity. IMO, any bounces in the COMP are nothing more than foolish money chasing dreams of days gone by. Unfortantely, it is not opinions that count but rather the data and the market's perception of the fundamentals which we see in the charts. The COMP has done a fairly good job of pricing in the reality of the IT spend scenario as it dropped from the 2100 level to the 1700 level - as opposed to the surge off the panic lows when things got pumped up beyond the true reality. Even with the drop to 1700, valuations remain pretty darn full. However, it is the perception of those valuations and the future that will be interesting to watch unfold. Yes, I am still holding some of my JNPR, but I'm not looking for any five baggers like some here seem to expect in short order. I was unaware anyone was looking for Juniper to run from $9 up to $45 in short order. I'd think a more realistic target would be in the range of low to mid teens over the next few quarters providing situations improve going forward for core and edge networking. Valuations on many of the technology leaders are quite high with little room for much upside and it will simply require a matter of quarters to roll by to see if IT spend and value propositions are taken by global organizations or not. There will always be pockets of strength along the way, but this year is not looking as too much of an "IT party spend" scenario across the board. I heard an interview with Brocade's CEO today here in Europe and he was surprised that they have been seeing some IT spend from a customer group that you would think would not be spending based on their health via the Telecommunications industry. Evidently the value proposition for that industry to increase productivity with the workers and storage/computing equipment they have was in favor of more SAN's equipment. I imagine Juniper will see piddly little pockets of strength here and there as well as pockets of weakness to couple with it, but I would rather let the data speak for itself as the next 4 quarters unfold. The last few days seemed we might be rounding out to a base, but in my mind, 10.25 needed to hold today. When it failed I set my stop at 10.1. I actually got filled 10.09 and 10.1. Damn, I'd rather see a solid 4 to 8 weeks (or longer) of a range between $9 to $12 (or pick your numbers) to build a good quality base. Too bad Juniper didn't do that between October and now. I'll be interested in the reaction to this quarters earnings or pre-announcements if there are any. BB