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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (8521)	3/1/2002 5:08:09 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Respond to of 36161

Paul, >>and am not so sure the CBs don't have another trick or two in them... Maybe they have. IMO the most important supply / demand factor is the recognition by producers that the LT trend has changed and the subsequent cut in hedging. This would have a LT effect. All CBs can do is a pop increase in supply. Their reserves are in a monotonic down trend anyway and any power they have is surely diminishing over time. Notice that the USD has been strong during recent POG rally, resulting in a much bigger rally in POG denominated in Euro and Yen. Japanese increased their investment demand for Gold because they started losing faith in their banking system. That's what produced the latest rally in PoG from the 270s to 300s and it looks different from past rallies that couldn't hold. A shift in demand, a shift in supply, hmmm... we're talking a major trend change here. ATG