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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Moominoid who wrote (15801)	2/28/2002 10:39:57 AM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi David: >>Mandelbrot too has shown that stock price series are self-similar fractals. Fractional integration is likely present and builds in stochastic cycles from basic unrelated shocks...<< i.e. the little wiggles up close look a lot like the big wiggles viewed from a distance - not terribly surprising. >>There are some short deterministic cycles in stocks of a few days duration.<< Perhaps because after a move away from the trend line the highest probability is a move back towards the trend line. >>Long term deterministic cycles are not present.<< Because, long term, the price of a stock is driven by company performance and by exogenous events that are difficult (!) to predict. >>So I know everyone claiming that cycle stuff is wrong.<< I'm sorry, this is ambiguous. Do you mean that the cycle stuff works or does not work? >>Anyway - see my edited post to CB for statistical validation of TA methods...<< Please excuse me, my head hurts already from your last post. That's enough thinking for one day! :-)