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To: Caxton Rhodes who wrote (114714)	2/28/2002 11:10:23 AM
From: marginmike	Respond to of 152472

'Its all about new subs, replacement rates, and cracking the GSM market" Not true earnings dilution because of share conversion lowers estimates and real reported earnings. Dont agree with the bears here, but your premis is incorect.

To: Caxton Rhodes who wrote (114714)	2/28/2002 11:14:29 AM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

'Its all about new subs, replacement rates, and cracking the GSM market" Not true earnings dilution because of share conversion lowers estimates and real reported earnings. Dont agree with the bears here, but your premis is incorect.

To: Caxton Rhodes who wrote (114714)	2/28/2002 11:31:21 AM
From: David E. Taylor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Caxton: You are absolutely correct, and I've been working like a beaver on that much more than the options stuff (which for me at least, meant rehashing stuff I'd looked at carefully before but needed to re-visit). I intend to post some 4 year revenue/earnings projections when I get the conflicts and kinks in the data worked out. David T.

To: Caxton Rhodes who wrote (114714)	2/28/2002 12:39:34 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Respond to of 152472

Its all about new subs, replacement rates, and cracking the GSM market. Nope, it is about real earnings, cash dividends and the ongoing bear market!

To: Caxton Rhodes who wrote (114714)	2/28/2002 4:47:53 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Its all about new subs, replacement rates, and cracking the GSM market. Those are the numbers that have come down from 2000 and 2001 estimates actually, if the options dilute EPS 10-20% per annum on an ongoing basis, that is a pretty strong headwind over the long haul. it is the cumulative effect i'd be concerned about. i wish we had a clear picture of what the ongoing dilution would be like. i have assumed only 3% ongoing, but perhaps it will be higher. even 3% is a huge hurdle in the long run imo.