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Strategies & Market Trends : Paint The Table -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (16769)	2/28/2002 11:55:48 AM
From: jcky	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23786

You bring up a good point Jorj. The Nasdaq cannot find a bottom until a few of these conditions are met, IMHO. 1) Tech leaders begin to break down hard technically. Now in some sectors this process has already begun (EMLX in fibre channel, CSCO in networking, EBAY in internets, MSFT in software, etc.) But there are still other companies which have yet to break down in their respective tech sectors (KLAC in semiconductor equipment). Until we get these last few companies to break, there will be no bottom. 2) The SOX index must fall below 500. We need this wash out one more time to unleash that last tier of tech sellers. We're still not there yet but we're close. 3) The DOW must correct with the Nasdaq (at the very least, the DOW breaks below 10,000. Chit man, give me a break). Up until now, money managers have simply rotated out of the techs and blindly jumped into the old economy and cyclical stocks, irrespective of valuations. There needs to be a wash out here too, IMHO. 4) The VIX and VXN tells us it's foolish to be complacent and long here. And for the past five years, the VIX has always had the last word.