Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (10850)	2/28/2002 12:38:43 PM
From: bruceleroy1_-	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

But wouldn't the big move off the bottom have already discounted most of the good economic news that is now coming out. Then wouldn't the markets need even better news to move higher? Sort of like when a stock moves up ahead of its earnings report. If the report does not exceed the expectations already priced in, the stock price will sell off.

To: J.T. who wrote (10850)	2/28/2002 2:15:00 PM
From: Joe Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Assuming that the markets do look out 6 months, then this good news did not fall on deaf ears at all. One could attribute the Fall rally to these numbers that show that our economy is not in a death spiral. The market's death spiral has ended too, but the economy is not really bouncing back in a vigorous way and neither are the markets. The difficulty in the markets getting traction now may be the market looking out at a possible difficulty for the economy to get traction this Fall. One caveat, I do think that the good news will draw some money back into the markets later this Spring but, I think it will be short-lived. BTW, your last post to Steve is to be commended. In the end, you handled your little flame-fest with Steve well. I do not think that Steve is a troll or a stalker. He just smelled blood due to your short-term disagreement with the markets. I do believe that he was a bit shrill, but his input is also valuable. It is amazing how quickly things can escalate in this impersonal messaging environment

To: J.T. who wrote (10850)	2/28/2002 5:14:47 PM
From: nsumir81	Respond to of 19219

The market has discounted what the trumpets are showing now and more. The technicals are an outcome of the in-advance bet on how the fundamentals (trumpets) would turn out. The market selloff is reflecting the next bet on the future fundamentals. It is reflecting now what the trumpets MIGHT say a few months or maybe 2 quarters from now.

To: J.T. who wrote (10850)	3/1/2002 12:11:27 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 19219

Another brick in the wall: U.S. Manufacturing Expands for First Time in 19 Months as ISM Index Surges U.S. Economy: Factory Slump Ends as Orders, Production Soar from Bloomberg By Siobhan Hughes Washington, March 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. manufacturing grew in February for the first time in 19 months, a sign the recession that began a year ago may have run its course. The Institute for Supply Management's factory index rose to 54.7 last month from 49.9 in January. A reading above 50 signals expansion, and the last time the index exceeded that level was July 2000. Fourteen out of 20 industries in the survey reported growth, the group said. ``Industry by industry there is some sense that things are improving,'' said Ralph Larsen, chief executive officer of Johnson & Johnson, in an interview at the Business Council meeting in Boca Raton, Florida. ``Orders are a little firmer. Inventories are being rebuilt. So there's just a bit of a crack of sunshine.'' Stocks soared and the dollar rose as the report provided evidence manufacturing has recovered from a slump that began in August 2000 and dragged the rest of the economy into recession last year. Separate reports showing increases in consumer spending, personal incomes and construction added to the optimism. ``After a year-long period of inventory liquidation we are at a point where production has to rebound because there are no excess inventory left to cut,'' said Dan Meckstroth, an economist for the Manufacturers Alliance, an Arlington, Virginia-based trade association representing almost 400 companies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 110 points, or 1.1 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 29 points, or 1.7 percent. The U.S. currency strengthened to 86.53 cents per euro from 86.93 yesterday. It has risen 2.8 percent against the euro and 1.2 percent against the yen this year on speculation the U.S. would pull out of recession before Europe or Japan. Treasury Notes Fall Treasury securities fell as the factory gains suggested to investors that Federal Reserve policy makers may start raising interest rates to keep the economy from overheating. The 4 7/8 percent note maturing in 2012 fell 3/4 point, pushing up its yield 10 basis points to 4.97 percent. A basis point equals 0.01 percentage point. In the manufacturing report, the index of new orders rose to the highest since October 1994. The production index was the highest in two years and orders from exports grew for a second straight month, the first time that's happened since August- September 2000. ``Finally, we're starting to see some production increases,'' said J.T. Battenberg, chairman and chief executive of Delphi Automotive Systems Corp., in an interview yesterday with Bloomberg Television. ``We're looking for a good first quarter and for a good year as the industry comes back.'' Delphi is the biggest auto- parts maker. General Motors Corp., the largest U.S. automaker, this week boosted first-quarter and full-year production estimates because U.S. sales are higher than expected. Ford Motor Co. yesterday reported increased demand for new cars and light trucks and said it would delay production cuts at five plants. More Overtime At the same time, General Motors and other factories are asking workers to put in overtime, evidence they aren't using new hires to fill demand. The employment index showed factories reduced payrolls in February for a 17th straight month. Companies still have little ability to raise prices. The prices-paid index fell last month and has showed companies reporting lower prices for the past year. The Tempe, Arizona, group surveys more than 400 companies in 20 industries, including clothing, printing, furniture and plastics. Manufacturing accounts for about one-sixth of the U.S. economy. Consumers' incomes and spending rose more than expected in January, a sign that demand for manufactured goods will increase in the months ahead. Incomes rose 0.4 percent last month, the largest gain in six months, and spending also increased 0.4 percent, the Commerce Department said. Analysts expected a 0.1 percent rise in incomes and a 0.3 percent gain in spending. Consumer Spending Strength of consumer spending has been responsible for the turnaround in manufacturing. Consumer spending grew at a 6 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, the fastest since mid-1998, as no-interest loans caused auto sales to surge. Since then, consumer spending has fallen off less than expected. Construction spending rose 1.5 percent in January, more than any other month in a year as work increased on homes and highways, the Commerce Department said. A separate report from the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment fell for the first time in five months in February, dropping to 90.7 for the month from 93 in January. The decline in confidence may reflect questions about the security of retirement plans after revelations about deceptive accounting practices at Enron Corp., analysts said. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index on Jan. 29 posted its largest drop since September as investors expressed concern companies such as Tyco International Ltd. and Williams Cos. may have misstated profits. *************** Best Regards, J.T.