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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (8552)	2/28/2002 3:50:40 PM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

<UNLESS broad market goes into the bag> Iso, my read is that this is what is happening. A little too early perhaps, to say with certainty, and the broader market could certainly continue to gasp for a while yet. The market indices I watch in decisionpoint, and there are several, just don't indicate any kind of bottom was put in here (recently). Usually when that happens they are all pretty well 'in sync'. That didn't happen as I witnessed it, and there appears to be continued deterioration in several indices. So my read is we gots more downside, and this latest up sure has looked rather exhaustive to me. But it has been a tough market to read, no doubt. Maybe I'm hoping too much, as my strategy has continued to evolve around a meltdown, gradual or otherwise. Needless to say it hasn't played out as I had planned, as I've had to hang on to my shorts longer than anticipated. Originally I had hoped to have some nice gains early, and roll them over into PM's, before they started to smoke. PM's however took off earlier than thought they might - but I had 60% or so in PM's, just in case. Appears to me tech is leading the way down. There is still a LOT of money in tech, and I believe it is gradually sinking in that tech cos aren't coming back tomorrow or the next day. Sometimes it takes a long time for things to sink in. You know how types that don't want to admit they are wrong - and there are a lot of novices investing and managing money these days. This money is slowing coming out, and has been propping up other more defensive equities. Problem is many of these are highly overvalued as well. Kind of like the chain letter. No one wants to be the last one to receive it, without a pass-off. Makes for a possible volatile situation. Since I'm short the broader market, mainly tech and some cyclicals, I'll take the chain letter. Don't know exactly what I'll do here the next few weeks. I do have some nice gains to take in shorts. Looks to me like some other sectors like retail and housing are about ready to dump hard. Pondering rotating these shorts over, or more PM's. Just pondering and watching these last few days however. The market has been moving in slow motion, so have I. Example: I shorted this one at 50. finance.yahoo.com But hell, it could go to near single digits. So you see I have a real quandry on my hands. I don't like to leave too much on the table.