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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (114753)	2/28/2002 5:28:59 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 152472

don't get me wrong, i enjoyed TRJ's posts, as well as EAL's, etc. my point is that value matters now. surely i was as much of an idiotic bubblehead as anybody. probably more. both in QCOM and SDLI (and some others). but one day the spirit inspired me, and i knew it was time to put away childish things. -g- i played those silly relative valuation games a lot. one of the reasons i bet the kitty on SDLI was that it seemed cheap compared to JDSU. JDSU was trading at around 50 times sales (at the time it didn't seem insane), and SDLI was only 15-20 on a cheap day, plus SDLI was a lot smaller so it was growing faster. it seemed a no-brainer to go for SDLI and hope it would get acquired at a ridiculous multiple (which it did). but of course i ended up drinking a lot of koolaid along the way :) in the case of both of these stocks, my exits were gutwrenching, unplanned--a different part of my brain just took over and killed all the faith i'd built up in the company. each time i sold, i figured i was a dummy. yes, come to think of it, i don't think i ever sold a bubble stock thinking that i was doing a smart thing. it always felt horrible. i always felt the stock would go straight up after i sold (and often it did). my first sale of QCOM was in the high 120s. almost on queue, as soon as i sold, it shot up to 160. i felt like an idiot, but i sold some more at 152. i felt bad again. but then it didn't shoot back up again, so i parted with the rest at lower prices, for 126 sell price on average. funny that i felt like such an idiot the first time i sold at that price, and yet it seems like such a high price now. SDLI was pretty much the same thing, only more compact (timewise). also, thanks to the QCOM experience, i was a lot less surprised than with QCOM (although i must admit that JDSU's incredible fall from 150 to under $5 is mindboggling....and it STILL trades at a healthy multiple of sales.) God,pleasegivemeonemorebubbleIpromiseI'llsellhigh.com ROFL! i'm sure nobody else has had that thought -g-

To: carranza2 who wrote (114753)	2/28/2002 10:08:36 PM
From: Keith Feral	Respond to of 152472

C2@God,pleasegivemeonemorebubbleIpromiseI'llsellhigh.com Looking back at the last major tech correction in 1994, everyone was pretty much convinced they would never see a bubble again. Cisco had crashed 60 or 70% as they shifted from hyper growth to 30% long term growth company. No one would touch them with a ten foot pole. If they could only get their money back. No one wanted to buy the company with a reasonable multiple despite the new outlook for the Internet. The company proceed to generate a 180,000% return in the 90's. The key for Cisco's recovery was the replacement cycle of new products they had engineered. People were just getting ready for the new pc experience known as the dial up internet - prodigy, compuserve, and other platforms. All of a sudden, people had an excuse to turn on their computers. The war between DOS and Windows turned in Microsoft's favor since it provided color and icons. Novell was left with Netware. I think the computers were now using Intel's 386 chips - not that it matters. 8 years later, AOL grabbed most of the dial up market because they provided color and graphics for their dial up users. It looked like a real news service. MSN did a great job grabbing market share once they figured out where the dial up market was heading. Yahoo spared their resources and focused on becoming an information portal with email and great information. The whole dial up Wintel platform has not evolved since Windows 95. Only 7% of the market is using high speed access, which is restricted to computers at home. There is no voice, broadband, or cable/video to enjoy new digital applications. IMO, Wintel platforms have no upside potential, unless they can figure out a way to integrate their stationary sytems with CDMA 1XEV services. Wireless handsets don't need a Windows OS so much as wired computers need a OS for BREW enabled 1XEV. Anyhow, enough about the Wintel legacy. It is over and done. We all can understand how the dial up Internet saved MSFT, INTC, and CSCO with dial up modem service that sits on a desk. These companies focused the next 8 years of success on non value added replacements for operating systems and processors. They didn't pay any attention how to help communication companies deliver new services. Qualcomm is now in the drivers seat. They will offer the first integration of information services, telecommunications, and cabel/video through a single software on a chip solution. Their chips and brew enable wireless providers to deliver any level of service to their customers - voip, broadband, and cable/video. Voice services will be able to roam in full mobility locally, nationally, and internationally. (Even WLL is helping people ditech their cordless phones.) Wireless providers are improving broadband speeds from 14.4 kbps to 2.4 kbps & 4.8 kbps. BREW applications are beginning to deliver gps and location services, global 2 way voip, wireless cable, 2 way video, gaming applications, et... BREW enabled 1XEV will be the biggest success of any technology product & service. With over 200 products in certification right now & 10 million downloads of the SDK, middleware services for wireless custoemrs are just getting started. These new services will drive replacements for new handsets. QCT is ready to start shipping record levels of chips for CDMAONE, PDC, and GSM networks in Korea, Japan, the US, and China as they upgrade to 3G dual mode networks. The growth will soon speak for itself. Qualcomm projects over 800 million cumulative CDMA2000 replacement handsets by 2005. Everything that Jacobs described back in 1998 and 1999 is now a commercial reality for CDMA2000 carriers. Actually, he has delivered much more as Qualcomm's BREW platform moved beyond the limited role of CDMA chips for voice and data products. They are now in control of voice, data, and cable/video products & services. The world has been waiting for a replacement to Wintel to finally add some value. I wouldn't worry too much about Gate's vision of operating systems for computers in the face of Qualcomm's ability to deliver 1XEV (voice, broadband, and cable/video) to any wireless phone, pda, laptop or pc computer, and any transportation vehicle that moves by boat, plane, or automobile. The universal acceptance of 3G CDMA for CDMA, PDC, and GSM/GPRS networks has been met with denial once again. Now Qualcomm's list of bitter licensees has moved beyond the GSM camp to the entire universe of US technology companies. The heroes behind CDMA manufacturing are sitting pretty in Japan & Korea right now. I think the Chinese and Indian manufacturers of CDMA products are beginning to get a shit eating grin too. As soon as visibility for GSM/GPRS/WCDMA becomes evident in Europe, are we supposed to assume that local companies in Britain, France, Germany, & Italy will not seek WCDMA licenses from Qualcomm too. I think it will be interesting to see how many UMTS licesning deals Qualcomm will sign in Europe between now and the end of the year. I don't think we have seen anything yet.