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Strategies & Market Trends : E-Mini Pit -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SE who wrote (1998)	2/28/2002 11:01:41 PM
From: gsp6181	Respond to of 11288

SE, good points, this was well covered in Douglas' "Trading in the Zone" which I found very insightful. - George

To: SE who wrote (1998)	2/28/2002 11:20:47 PM
From: Dan Duchardt	Respond to of 11288

Scott, I agree with you that we have no fundamental disagreement, both of us accepting what I referred to as the market being not deterministic. But to me, and I dare say to many others the phrase "no idea" equates to 0% certainty and it as dangerous an approach to the market as the opposite extreme of believing with 100% certainty that you will ultimately be proved "right", regardless of what happens next. Extreme uncertainty leads to over-reacting to every little perturbation in price, over-trading, cutting losses short but gains even shorter, and slowly bleeding to death by a thousand cuts. It may take longer, but you wind up just as dead as not protecting yourself from the one fatal wound. It is tempting to argue that you can disprove this by trading with random entries and "proper money management". IMHO that is a bogus argument. Proper money management encompasses all of the interpretation skills needed by any successful trader to know when to hold em, and know when to fold em. Trading with "no idea" is the equivalent of random entries coupled with random exits. It will never be profitable. Dan