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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: tekboy who wrote (20284)3/1/2002 1:26:23 PM
From: LLLefty  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 281500
 
>>>>true. but I'll admit the piece was striking enough to raise the same fanciful thought in my mind. The Arab League thing will be key, I think. If the Saudis don't raise the proposal formally, I don't think it goes too far. If they do indeed present it for discussion--which I still doubt they will--that would really be news....<<<<

Nope, let's face it, al-Sharq's contrition was designed solely to protect its "reputation" for balance and credibility.

-0-

It's possible that the Saudis might raise the matter but I don't think we'll ever see a White House photo of Sharon and the Crown Prince shaking hands with Tom Friedman grinning behind them.

While I would like to believe otherwise, the Prince's pre-67 proposal was strictly a short-term balm to help shore-up the downturn in relations with us. Whether he repeats or not next month, it's likely to take on a life of its own with the Europeans aching to stick it to Israel. (BTW, you you should give a calm-down pill to CFR's Seigman).

I don't know Cheney's Middle East schedule but that one might be interesting beyond the conventional wisdom that it's all about Iraq. He ought to take a leaf from frustrated Jim Baker re Shamir back in the late 80s and give the Crown Prince Sharon's telephone number. The same should go for Zinni if he returns; he should tell Arafat to stop knocking on the wrong doors if he really wants a settlement.

My own view--and ME prophets have a G-awful batting average--is that we will see Sharon and his people in negotiations toward a settlement in a year or so. Why?

Because the intifada has turned into a War of Attrition (caps, W,A) which is what the Israelis cannot accept and sustain indefinitely at this level.

Sharon is fighting the war with his gloves on; the IDF has been trying to keep innocent Palestinian casualties down while Peres and even Sharon himself talks behind
the scenes. But it's going nowhere because the Palestinians, (despite the arguments of Hannah Ashwari, the BBC's favorite interlocator) seem to take a different attitude toward the sanctity of life.

BTW, I don't know if you saw Dennis Ross' limp op-ed piece a week or so ago in the Washington Post; sad for a guy who once played a conceptual role in the peace process.

In any event, I agree that if the Crown Prince does take that paper from his drawer and mention it next month, it would shake things up but whether for good I don't know yet.

There was a time when the Israelis would have leaped at something like this but the Oslo and Camp David-Taba failures have shredded any Israeli hopes for peace other than in Yossi Belein and redoubtable Shimon Peres, who, from a photo I saw the other day, is looking quite fragile. Maybe WGB should bring Henry K. back into the picture for a last turn (g).