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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (35334)	3/1/2002 11:05:49 AM
From: DebtBomb	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Yes, saw it George. Guy on CNBC is saying recession over, they're all ecstatic today, I wouldn't be surprised to see us dump end of day. ;-O

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (35334)	3/1/2002 11:06:06 AM
From: John Doyle	Respond to of 99280

Can you post a chart?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (35334)	3/1/2002 11:07:31 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

What do you make of the strong economic data? As I see it; it is consistent with the view that the Nasdaq goes lower. Mild recesssion might lead to mild recovery. That does not help tech because there was a spending bubble not too long ago. If that is the case, tech spending is not likely to pick up significantly and therefore a lot of those stocks are vulnerable to major drops as valuations get re-adjusted. Growth still could mean severe declines in the Nasdaq. Watching one of those stocks that depend on a tech spending pickup--Oracle..very weak today. If you suggest smart money sells at the end of the day, then today. For the strong day to hold, I think Oracle has to close much better than it looks now. jmho

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (35334)	3/1/2002 11:08:16 AM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

The only question is, George, how long can they continue distribution? Can they do it all the way into March 15? It seems likely they will at least make an attempt at it.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (35334)	3/1/2002 11:11:55 AM
From: Softechie	Respond to of 99280

That was like last 3 days for both Dow and Nasdaq. Ain't good.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (35334)	3/1/2002 11:24:04 AM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

George S. Cole: Regarding the Smart Money Indicator I have noticed the same thing as well and this is important -- it is one of the most accurate indicators of the market and is a LEADING indicator. Having said that, it has about a 70-80 day lag or lead on the market. Since it peaked in mid-December, I think it implies a significant correction occurring in mid-March. Don Hays noticed this as well and discussed it in his daily briefing of 1/28/02. His thesis at that time (and, in fact, in all his postings since then to the present) was that we would have one more powerful rally before the correction, since the "dumb" money often piles into the market as the "smart" money is exiting. Needless to say, Don Hays has been dead wrong on this and the rally he was predicting has not happened. More importantly, the "dumb" money has not been so dumb, after all. The January money inflow into mutual funds was the weakest in over a decade and the individual investor has either remained on the sidelines or gone into bond funds. If Don Hays' rally is going to occur, it has to occur in the next 2-3 weeks. Although today seems to be a powerful day, I am uncertain as to whether it is the beginning of a powerful, short rally prior to a mid-month correction or a one-day wonder.