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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (36292)	3/2/2002 10:22:06 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69860

[madtrader] Fri Mar 1, 5:38pm PST Market I took a peek at the headlines of on Realmoney.com today (I cancelled my subscription, getting tired of Cramer's comments). And I see self proclaimed option guru Tony Saliba suggesting a role reversal ahead between the DOW and QQQ; Cramer bashing First Hand funds and techs in general. I don't know what kind of charts these two are looking at. DJI just made a post September high. Higher highs and higher lows makes a positive trend, so why would anyone suggest a role reversal? I don't have a crystal ball, but I am going to stick to my call that we will have a fabulous year this year. The first half will be lead by DJI. DJI is just getting started, the run is far from over. Meanwhile, Nasdaq is going to be lagging behind. The fundamental problem with Nasdaq type stocks is the simple fact between 1995-2000, there was massive capacity built up. These kind of capacity won't get taken out in a year or two. Technically, Nasdaq had a much bigger run than DJI between 1998-2000. The correction from the peak was also much more severe. I tell people Nasdaq is like someone with his limbs cut off. You don't recover from that kind of damage in a short period of time. DJI did essentially nothing between 1998-2001. A 3 year consolidation period. A breakout above this congestion will take DJI up to 14,000-15,000 level. As for tech, I think there is a two tier market. Sure, ORCL blew up in after-hours. I am not at all concerned. ORCL will actually be one of those companies that does benefit from the economic upturn. I think the Street will be willing to look beyond the past. The problem area within tech will still be telecom related. Even with those names, I believe it might be too late to sell the majors. But you might still want to unload some of the 2nd and 3rd tier players. So, one can play tech, except one has to be very selective. none. [RumorDude] Fri Mar 1, 5:01pm PST ORCL While I think most people aren't overly surprised with the ORCL warning (hence the cautionary yellow), this will help drive me one way or another on the market for next week. That is, if the markes start to head south as others realize more warnings are destined over the next few weeks, then obviously the VIX/Volume/trend stories I'm putting out would be correct. However, should the market decide to shrug it off - and for ORCL they might - then things could indeed be turning up. Either way, I'll be using this issue as the market barometer for tech. none Register for our newsletter [RumorDude] Fri Mar 1, 12:59pm PST Volume Well, the volume did pick up the clip a bit here, but it's not going to be one of those high volume ones which make for easy telling. The DIA actually looks pretty good, even the MACD is pretty aggressive, so I am beginning to get a better picture of some of the excitement madtrader has. Even the $SPX.X looks like a W is comign around. But given warning season around the corner, the low VIX, and the "not heavy" volume, I can't convince myself this is the real thing yet. I would rephrase madtraders comment about "the DIA will lift up the Q's" to "the Q's will drop down the DIA". Either way, I'd say I still have a bearish inclination here. "Sell high, buy low". :) none [madtrader] Fri Mar 1, 11:29am PST Market It's been a good week. And I don't want to push my luck. I not being bearish, just cautious here. I am scaling out of my common positions, and leaving bunch of calls here. I am done for the week, wish you all a good weekend. sold longs. [RumorDude] Fri Mar 1, 11:12am PST QQQ Straddling up a bit here. Buy to open Mar 34 QQQ puts, Buy to open Mar 35 QQQ puts, Buy to open Mar 37 QQQ calls. [madtrader] Fri Mar 1, 11:06am PST BRCM NVDA EBAY Well, I hate to disagree with Rumordude here. Since I believe Nasdaq will be lifted by the DOW. And the DOW is simply going to steaming towards 11150, another 850 point move. I would imagine Nasdaq will revisit the January highs. I can see that the bears have yet to capitulate. But capitulate they will. That will help lift all boats, including the "leaky" ones like EBAY and NVDA. Of the three, EBAY did the most damage to itself, breaking it's 62% retracement level, making whatever uptrend it had from September suspect. While NVDA merely followed Nasdaq and retraced 50%, BRCM follow QQQ and retraced 62%. Of course all sharp corrections, but not enough to reverse the uptrend. Being key components in the NDX, no matter what our fundemental views is on these names. It is best not to get in the way of a buying herd right now. The easy money will be made on the long side for now. none.