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Gold/Mining/Energy : CPN: Calpine Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donaldm who wrote (383)	3/1/2002 1:23:58 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Respond to of 555

I'm not accusing him of illegal sales. I'm saying that the system is broken. That these stock option bonanzas that corporate CEOs have gotten in excess in the last 10 years are not doing the retail investor one bit of good. That the market has been artificially goosed so that the "right people", people like Ken Lay, Jeff Skilling, Gary Winnick, and dozens more like them can walk away from a stock, leaving most of the public with an empty bag. Fleecing the sheeple, as it were. That's what's wrong with the system today. And the crime is that it is all perfectly legal. -Ray

To: Donaldm who wrote (383)	3/6/2002 9:16:35 AM
From: Donaldm	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 555

This Just In on CPN: 06:15am EST 6-Mar-02 Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown Inc. (J. Dobson/K. Seidel/J.) Rising Power Prices Drive Generation Stocks Higher, Outlook Improving Dobson, James L. CFA 212-469-4568 3/6/02 Seidel, Kimberly B. 212-469-4577 West, Jason 212-469-4573 Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown Inc. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CALPINE CORPORATION (CPN) "BUY" RELIANT RESOURCES, INC. (RRI) "BUY" ALLEGHENY ENERGY INC. (AYE) "BUY" UTILICORP UNITED INC. (UCU) "BUY" Rising Power Prices Drive Generation Stocks Higher, Outlook Improving ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 52-WK Earnings Per Share FY Price Price 3-5 Yr Est. Ticker End 03/05/2002 Range 2001 2002 2003 Growth Chg? CPN 12 9.15 58-6 1.95A 1.70 1.90 15% N RRI 12 12.40 38-9 1.65 1.95 NE 10% N AYE 12 37.34 55-32 3.69A 3.70 NE 10% N UCU 12 23.40 38-22 2.44A 2.80 NE 12% N ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS: WHAT'S NEW: POWER PRICES RISING - High correlation between power prices and generation stock prices drives rally in electric power sector. Colder weather and the prospects of an improving economy are driving the higher power prices. DROVE GENERATORS HIGHER: Pure-play generators up significantly yesterday, led by Calpine (CPN, up 16%) and Mirant (MIR, up 10%). NEAR-TERM POWER PRICE OUTLOOK POSITIVE: Prospects for a stronger economy and the outlook for more normal winter and summer weather should support power prices. We are not convinced that commodity prices or generation stock prices will continue to rise at this break neck pace. However, we believe higher power prices will alleviate most of the near-term concerns that have plagued the sector. BALANCED APPROACH TO SECTOR: We still believe investors should have a balanced approach to the group, combining pure play generation stocks (CPN, RRI, MIR) with integrated energy companies (AYE, DUK, UCU). OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER: Short-covering in sector could drive performance in the near-term. Higher power prices will reduce liquidity concerns. DETAILS: Power prices continued to rise early this week and have now risen over 25% in the last two weeks. The rally has been driven by colder winter weather, improving prospects for the economy, and declining concerns about excess generating capacity. As we discussed earlier this week, industrial demand for electricity has declined over 12% in the current economic slump. A recovery in industrial electricity demand alone could easily drive spot power prices higher. This coupled with more normal weather should keep power prices at current levels or higher. As a result of the high correlation between spot power prices and generation stock prices we highlighted recently, generation-related stocks have begun to perform better. Yesterday (3/5), the electric power sector rose 1.5% while the S&P 500 declined 0.7%, but Calpine (CPN: Buy) rose 16.4%, Mirant (MIR: Market Perform) rose 10.0%, Reliant Resources (RRI: Buy) rose 6.8% and Allegheny Energy (AYE: Buy) rose 2.2%. We are not convinced that commodity prices or generation stock prices will continue to rise at this break neck pace. However, we believe higher power prices should alleviate most of the near-term concerns that have plagued the sector, including liquidity and 2002 profitability. It is noteworthy that 60,000 MW is under construction for 2002 and another 50,000 MW is under construction for 2003. Although an improving economy and normal weather will go a long way to absorbing the 2002 capacity, we believe more normal demand growth in 2003 will leave most regions of the United States with excess generating capacity. This should create an environment for very seasonal performance in the electric power sector - buy them in spring and sell them before fall. Generation stocks appear poised for continued outperformance. We still believe investors should have a balanced approach to the group, combining pure play generation stocks (CPN, RRI, MIR) with integrated energy companies (AYE, DUK, UCU). Although the pure-play companies have the largest leverage to rising commodity prices, we believe the integrated companies have the best long-term growth prospects in the electric power and natural gas sectors. Our favorite names in the sector include Calpine Corporation (CPN: Buy), Allegheny Energy (AYE: Buy), Reliant Resources (RRI: Buy) and UtiliCorp United (UCU: Buy).