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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (35631)	3/1/2002 3:07:06 PM
From: Ted Downs	Respond to of 99280

The VIX measures implied volatility of several Standard & Poor's 100(^OEX - news) option prices and typically moves counter to the stock market. Implied volatility measures as a percentage how much the options market thinks a stock price -- or in this case, the Standard & Poor's 100 index -- will move during the option's life. A low VIX signals a market complacent about current stock levels and not looking for any huge price swings, while a rising VIX signals a turn away from complacency to a state of nervousness usually triggered by a stock market decline. Since June 2001, the VIX has spent the majority of its time between 22.00 and 28.00. The one time the VIX broke above these levels was in September. The VIX hit an intraday high of 57 on Sept. 21, when the stock market hit three-year lows in the aftermath of the deadly plane attacks on the United States. It took awhile for the fear to subside, but the VIX returned to its low trading range in November. The VIX hit a new six-month low at 21.69 on Jan. 28 when stocks finished little changed in advance of the President's annual State of the Union address. That was followed by a jerk upward to an intraday high of 29.92 on Jan. 30 before a pullback to 24.87 late last Wednesday. That was when the stock market staged a rebound after the widely expected Federal Reserve decision to leave interest rates unchanged eased worries about corporate balance sheets. ``There is huge room right now for a major pop in the VIX. In fact, it seems as though the only way to avoid this would be for the market to begin a steady rally without delay,'' said Bernie Schaeffer of Schaeffer's Investment Research on Monday on his Web site Schaeffers Research.com

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (35631)	3/1/2002 3:08:14 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Justa, I absolutely know you know better than this, this reliance on the vix, so I am truly confounded. I think very highly of you from way back and I think you are simply 100% certain that we will see that typical cyclical low we get in the mid term congressional year. And, frankly, that cycle is the only reason I am cautious, although not today. I wish you the best and all the nonsense aside, think there is an excellent chance you will be right. But I also think that cycle may be off this year, like it was in 1986.(Techs were butchered in 85 so the cycle was off)