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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (35862)	3/1/2002 7:21:01 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 99280

I don't really know, on Feb 25th we closed at around 1770, now we are at 1802, and IMTO, a little overextended and we have relieved most of the oversold condition we had earlier this week. The question is will this bounce start a major move back above the pivot point around 1940 or not. Right now, m guess is not. I don't know your TA but I agree with you too. The reason I did not jump on board the Nasdaq rally and ride it out was just the probability of earnings blowups that are on the way. I traded Dow stocks on the way up but no Nasdaq..downside risk too high...as I thought "smart money" would start bailing out by day end for obvious reasons (warnings); however it appears there was just too much buying pressure today. Oracle warning is just the tip of the iceberg. Wait til they guide for next quarter (17cents estimate-LOL) on their conference call. Cisco, Sebl, and even MSFT etc... are all potential disasters either in their earnings or their guidance. We are not in a high growth era like the late 1990s. Flat to slightly up earnings/revenue won't cut it for the Nasdaq stocks. MSFT has basically no growth in the coming year...my bet would be a contraction in earnings for the next 12 months. The big caps are in trouble. We saw what fund inflows and some good economic news can do but it will be short lived. They may just use the cash to buy up old economy stocks. For that reason, I still think long Dow and short Nasdaq strategy is going to continue working in march and April. jmho