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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (20409)	3/2/2002 2:26:12 AM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Interesting Saudi analysis of Crown Prince Abdullah's little proposal. This analysis doesn't make it sound as if the Prince is attempting to change attitudes at home; could it be that the audience for this 'peace proposal' resides solely in Washington, DC? The Israeli Flag in Riyadh? By Nawaf Obaid Saturday, March 2, 2002; Page A23 This week, the Saudi and Israeli flags fluttered next to one another on America Online's main news home page. The question is, will we see a similar scene in the diplomatic quarter of Riyadh? Will there be an Israeli Embassy next door to the Saudi royal court? Not any time soon. The recent announcement by Crown Prince Abdullah that Saudi Arabia would recognize Israel if it returned to the 1967 borders has provided a glimmer of hope in the Middle East. It reveals the courage and vision of the Saudi leader. However, to assume that the Saudi crown prince can dictate such an important policy is to gravely misunderstand the situation on the ground. In the Saudi kingdom, consensus is the coin of the realm, and in this case, consensus is going to be extremely difficult to come by. Saudi Arabia has never been a one-man show, although pundits and policymakers in the West often paint it as a monolithic state. Through nearly a century of existence, leadership has been exercised by balancing the various centers of power in the kingdom: the senior Saudi princes, religious leaders and the public. No one institution has the authority to implement a policy as important as recognizing Israel. Doing so would have enormous implications not only for Saudi Arabia -- the richest Arab country and custodian of the two holiest sites in Islam -- but also for the entire Arab and Muslim world. Of course, no Arab government can reject this plan outright, especially since it originated in Saudi Arabia, but convincing their people is another matter. This is especially a concern among the Saudis. Even if Crown Prince Abdullah is able to gain the support of a majority of the senior leadership of the royal family, opposition among the religious establishment and on the street is deep-seated and adamant. Since the announcement, reaction in the kingdom has wavered between astonishment and dismay. Recognizing Israel is anathema to the religious authorities. The very mention of normal ties with Israel, under any circumstances, left one senior religious leader "literally dumbfounded." And were an Israeli flag to fly in Riyadh, the average Saudi would be enraged. These reactions are representative of the highly traditional attitude among Saudis. A great majority clings to the pronouncement of the late Saudi King Faisal, who promised that Saudi Arabia would be the last Muslim country ever to recognize Israel. Such sentiment cannot be taken lightly. Disgruntled religious extremists have a history of violence in the kingdom, and their ranks will only grow if the leadership is seen as abandoning long-held Saudi values. Thus, the royal family will be extremely careful about adopting any policy that widens the gap between themselves and their people. For this reason, it is worth considering the wisdom of the manner in which this proposal was presented. While there is no reason to doubt that the Saudi crown prince was motivated by a sincere desire for peace in the region and independence for the Palestinians, his advisers may have underestimated the confusion and antagonism such an announcement would create. The proposal would have a much better chance of getting a fair hearing had it been thoroughly considered and formally presented to the Saudi public and the Arab world. Announcing it over dinner, without any details and to a journalist who is a longtime Saudi critic, only undermined any chance for broad-based Saudi and Arab consensus. Still, the genie is out of the bottle, and it can't be put back. It is important to remember, though, that recognition of Israel will occur, if at all, only after much time and work building support in Saudi Arabia -- a daunting task in the deeply conservative desert kingdom. It will happen only after many difficult and frank discussions between Crown Prince Abdullah and his people about the pros and cons of this policy. If the Saudi crown prince wants Saudis to recognize Israel, he must lead them to a new conception of themselves and their role in the world. This may seem impossible, but if anyone in the kingdom has earned a mandate for such a monumental task, it is Abdullah. The writer is a Saudi security and political analyst washingtonpost.com