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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (82684)	3/2/2002 8:11:59 AM
From: Tom Pulley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

re: <because you have to have a sherlock holmes spyglass lately to find a bull on SI lately, i think the probability of the rally to continue quite high> Bobby, for those that don't have a Sherlock Holmes spyglass (and a couple people who sent PM), my model went 100% long a week ago last Friday at the open. Message 17096782 Currently the model is still long with some room to run if the rally consolidates a bit first. Many of the indicators are at solid short term resistance levels. Tough to call if we break out up or go back to retest 1700 area on the Nasdaq, but wouldn't be surprised to retest lower first. However the market looks good from a long term perspective, interest rates are low, economy is just emerging from a recession or slowdown, oil and gas prices are under control, unemployment claims have peaked and are dropping, money supply figures look good, etc. QQQ is currently about 15% off its high of the year which looks like a correction in a bull market that started in late September. At this stage in the economy, true long term investors typically are better off to be in the market. Below are my model's buys and sells for this year. Each call has been and will be posted on this thread for other timers to comment on or poke fun: CB Model 2002: - January 2nd: buy qqq at open 39.57......$100,000 in qqq. - January 4: sell qqq at open 41.95.......$106,005 in cash. - January 7: short 25% of account at open 42.11......$79,504 cash, $26,491 short qqq. - February 7: buy back qqq short at $36.00......$109,829 in cash. - February 20: go 50% long, buy qqq at 34.9......$54,904 in qqq, 54,915 in cash. - February 22: go to 100% long at open, buy qqq at 33.61.....$107,780 in qqq. - March 2: qqq closed 3/1 at 35.74......Ytd qqq is down 9.7%, CB model is up 14.6%. Tom

To: bobby beara who wrote (82684)	3/2/2002 12:33:57 PM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

With the Indies and the Trannies at new highs for the year and the Nazzies coming off lows for the year and a valid-looking, w-ish test of critical support around those 9/10 levels that I, as well as the indices and stocks themselves, have been harping on, also equivalent to a 61.8 retrace from Sept low to Jan highs on NDX, I see no reason why the techs can't at least play some catch-up for a while. Volume was relatively light for a major rally day, but not bad for a Friday. Additional factors include, but aren't limited to the breakout on DJI and SPX off "high wave lines" (sequence of long-legged dojis) - seeming to forecast a test of the '01 highs at least on those indices. A signal could come as early as Monday morning. LBR, who apparently has been getting as interested in the techs as she's been in years, was talking up how much she liked them long yesterday in her chat room, both on the day and looking forward. She suggested that, given the day's performance and indications, the first pullback Monday morning should be a buy on the Nasdaq. In this light, the ORCL headline may bring up three possible scenarios: 1) Major damage - it's a bummer, and the market sees it as a bummer: The stock is taken apart, AND the whole software sector gets hit, AND incipient profit-taking elsewhere in tech-land picks up speed, leading to a major re-tracement of Friday's gains on higher volume, and yet another, even more conspicuous failure to break the conspicuous downtrend in those conspicuous tech indices - suggesting overall that the techs really are as sick as the value-mongers have been saying, and that, at minimum, another test of critical Sept. '01 levels is in store; and, for that matter, that much of the excitement on the Dow and S&P may already be over; 2) Local damage - it's a bummer, and the market sees it as a bummer, but, though ORCL gaps down and never looks back, seemingly on the way to joining other stars of yesteryear at juvenile price levels, damage in the already beaten-up software sector is limited, and hardly touches anyone else: despite heavy losses to a high volume (former?) leadership stock, the tech indices follow through on Friday, somewhat meekly but still quite conspicuously breaking the conspicuous downtrend, on the way to a re-test of the year's highs, still dependent on additional catalysts for any chance of breaking out further; 3) It's a bummer - dig it! ORCL bounces and rallies hard - suggesting the market is virtually immunized to bad news - and the techs launch off the first profit-taking/LBR pullback, put another solid daily bar on top of Friday, conspicuously breaking the conspicuous downtrend, on high volume, commencing a major "damn-the-valuations" Wave 3 rally that hardly even notices the 50- and 200-DMAs and whatever other nominal resistance levels coming up. Regardless of what happens on Monday, if 9/10 holds and the downtrend is broken in the near future, then I think your NASI and similar indicators will be very worth watching for evidence that an up-move is a "3" rather than a "c" or some other complex entropic rangebound thing.