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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (20420)	3/2/2002 12:33:34 AM
From: Nadine Carroll	Respond to of 281500

Well, yes, Carl, but you must admit that Paraguay is an extreme example. Plenty of wars have ended well short of killing more than half the adult male population. The Israelis and the Palestinians both have their backs up against the wall. No one is going to cry "uncle" over a few deaths per day According to polls, a majority on both sides knows that this conflict will have to be settled by negotiation at some point, so this is not really a battle to the death, just a case of excruciatingly bad Palestinian governance. I know, the Israelis haven't been total angels either, but it was Arafat's calculation that he a) couldn't afford to face his hard-liners with the realities of a deal, and b) could sweeten the terms by starting his low-grade guerilla war, that got this mess started. I don't know if the Palestinians really have their backs against a wall as they know that the Israelis will not massacre them or expel them if they give up. On the other hand, the majority of Israelis believe that if they give up, not only will they get a Taliban-like terrorist state next door, they will rekindle all Arab hopes of winning the next war. I just heard Daniel Pipes give a talk on the radio. He said that Israel needed to defeat the Palestinians. It was pointed out to him that Israel has won five wars without ever really defeating the Arabs, i.e., making them give up hopes; how did he think Israel could defeat the Palestinians now? Pipes replied that defeat is a psychological process, and in his opinion the Israelis had been losing a year ago, but the Palestinians were losing now. A year ago, the Israelis had been in disarray and demoralized, but they had found new solidarity and resiliance in coping with the situation. A year ago the Palestinians thought they were really getting somewhere with the intifada, but now they see that they are further away than ever from their goals, and their economy has completely collapsed. I don't know if he's right, but I give you the opinion fwiw.