50% GAINS PORTFOLIO – MARCH 2
KEY RATIOS:
TECH - 20%
NON-TECH - 80%
CASH - (-6)%
OPTIONS - 1.5%
BONDS - 6%
IN: ELMG (19.69), MNC (28), OI (14.96), PGO (5.52), PMACA (20.44), RKT (19.01), WG (14.91), VPI Aug 10 calls (1)
OUT: GTIV, GW, LVLT, ALGX, PETC, LQI, HC, TTIL, CKR, ETP
TOP TEN: WTM, MAXF, AHR, ACGL, AVD, OCAS, FF, FB, NXTL Sep 2007 bonds, FRT. **Percentage of total portfolio: 41%.
CURRENT SHORTS AND PUTS: ZIXI-short (6.29), GSPT Apr 10 puts (1.2), WEBX Mar 15 puts (1.9)
SECTORS: Finance 34.5%, Retail 16.5%, Real Estate 12%, Biotech 9.5%, Business Services 7%, Bonds 6%, Defense 5%, Communications Infrastructure 4.5%, Energy 4.5%, Communications Services 3.5%, Software 3%, Transportation 2.5%, Internet .5%, Gaming N/A%, Cash (-6)%.
**Quicken 2002 calculates sector %’s as a total of all investments, including margin. Total Sectors plus/minus Cash will equal 100%.
HOLDINGS:
CATEGORY - STOCK (COST BASIS updated periodically to reflect averaging into positions)
FINANCE - ACGL (18.31), AMGP (23.19), FF (13.25), IMH (7.76), MAXF (3.48), NFI (9.95), OCAS (17.1), PMACA (20.44), QBEIF (3.35), WM Apr 35 calls (2.4), WTM (358)
RETAIL - EAT (31.35), HKF (15), MHM (13.7), OI (14.96), RKT (19.01), SAFM (21.37), STAR (14.3)
REAL ESTATE - AHR (11.50), FB (26.77), FRT (24.02)
BIOTECH/HEALTHCARE - AVD (18.5), FVE (8.34), HUM (12.95), UAHC (5.93), USON June 10 calls (.55)
BUSINESS SERVICES - CASS (25.05), EFDS (17.86), IDCO (11.67)
BONDS - LVLT 2008 11% Bonds (58), NXTL Sep 2007 bonds (76.50)
DEFENSE - APFC (8.9), ORBT (3.15)
COMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE - ELMG (19.69), VSAT (12.50)
ENERGY - PGO (5.52), UCU Apr 30 calls (1.7), VPI Aug 10 calls (1), WG (14.91)
COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES - ALGX Mar 12.5 calls (.42), ALGX Jun 5 calls (.70), NXTL Aug 10 calls (1.70)
SOFTWARE - ELTE (11.7)
TRANSPORTATION - MNC (28)
INTERNET - GSPT Apr 10 puts (1.2), WEBX Mar 15 puts (1.9), ZIXI-short (6.26)
GAMING - CRYP Apr 15 calls (3.5)
**Monthly update on YTD performance: February 28, 2002: -4% YTD.
Dow +.5% YTD, SP500 –3.5% YTD, NASDAQ –11% YTD.
COMMENT – What can you say about a month like February where the NASDAQ plunged 11% from 1934 to 1731? This is the strongest day-to-day and intraday volatility I have seen in a long time. Holding any position long or short took a lot of intestinal fortitude. Those who used stops to limit losses often saw themselves knocked out of a position just before the stock turned and ran the other way with equal force - but not using stops could leave you open to some major blowups like CIEN, GNSS and RSTN among others (TYC, JPM, etc.) or some big squeezes on days when the market decided to buy the living daylights out of stocks it had sold off hard just a day or two before.
The 3% gain in the NASDAQ on March 1 is a perfect example of the unpredictable whipsaw volatility, with the gains lead by exactly the same stocks that sold off steadily all week. Bottom-fishing those volatile stocks even the day before was a falling-knife catching exercise with bloody results. Many of the “hot stocks” only made it back to the top of their down channel, leaving more room to drop if the ORCL warning tanks the NASDAQ again.
The market will probably continue to flounder until Wall Street decides if a recovery is really underway or not. Hopefully we will see some steady sector movement then with playable trends that last longer than a few hours before they reverse. |
