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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (2171)	3/2/2002 6:14:49 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95936

AM, My concern is not so much the analysts are 180 degrees out of phase with the market, as much as they seem to be "always late" in making their calls. They should have been "marking them up" in the last 3 months of 2001 to be in sync with what has really happened. Many of the semi-equips were up 50 to 100 percent or more over that time period. Some of them have continued further advance into 2002, but the big gains, for the most part, have been over. Having said that, I don't think this "recovery" is going away for the next few months. I think there are to many factors that will keep it going for awhile. Also, past experience with this group show cyclical activity on roughly a 2 to 3 year time period. This group had peaks in 95, 97 and 99/00, so if this history continues, probably a peak in 02/03. That means we have a little way to go prior to the start of the downturn. I think the upgrades will continue at a fast pace and pick up many of the stocks which haven't seen any upgrades for many months. These will be many of the smaller cap stocks in the group. I think the upgrades will be late again - they should be coming in now because by fall the earnings estimates will really be on the rise. As you know, if you have looked at the recent earnings estimate tables posted, the trend has started upward for the group. While the "uptick" is still small, it will grow faster during the next few months. Don