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To: minnow68 who wrote (72993)	3/2/2002 8:14:36 PM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

. I'm just trying to keep the rest of the thread from joining the 99% of people who try their hand at options and lose money at it I hope you can look at this sentence and see the absurdity of it. For options there is no "house". You are claiming that there is somewhere out there that 1% of the options traders who are making all the money that 99% is losing. Absurd. Every options trade has a buyer and a seller. As for therapists, my observation in life has been that they make their living giving other people an excuse for being a loser. EP

To: minnow68 who wrote (72993)	3/2/2002 8:44:40 PM
From: Bill Jackson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Mike, better a minnow in a small pond than a whale with the sharks? yes, there was one guy who bought Bre-x for 30-40 cents and plowed all his cash into it. Rode it up ro $135.00 and then lost it all....and complained about life, lost a paper profit of $20 million. Me, I would be long gone. Now the chaos factor like 9-11 comes along and upsets all the nice little schemes, or, like Enron, some monster cat is debagged and down they go. Elmer is not correct when he say there is no house, the broker takes the role of the house and gets his money no matter what happens. I prefer to do sane things, like riverboat gambling. At least you get comped a lot if you lose. In some ways a therapist is the ultimate parasite, gets some bllod every week and does it for years and years. People seem to stay in therapy until their insurance company pulls the plug. Rich people are lifers. Bill

To: minnow68 who wrote (72993)	3/2/2002 9:17:16 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

minnow68: "Now Elmer, before you protest that you know what you are doing and this can't happen to you, I concede that you are that one person in a million who, while staying on the wrong side of Black Scholes, still manages a long term profit from option activity. I have no doubt you will be richer than Gates eventually. I'm just trying to keep the rest of the thread from joining the 99% of people who try their hand at options and lose money at it." Great post...I've been trading options (and stocks, but I like the option action)for 20+ years during which I have seen many, many Elmer's come and go...They all have spouted off about their failsafe systems until they lose bigtime and many have never been heard of again...Some even, without provocation, chided others for losing...It is my experience that there are a handful of fundamental rules that if applied rigourously can provide a reasonably handsome return over the longer term...One of those rules is that no one strategy is a guranteed winner...Another is that options are a statistical game with winning strings and losing strings and the key is to protect a portion of winnings to offset that inevitable string of losses that will occur...For example, I rolled a fair percentage of my January '01 profits into long term calls (Jan '02 calls) and lost the remainder of those January profits riding the short term Jan and Feb potential call wave...Now I'll sit tight 'til AMD trades outside the $10 to $20 range at which time I'll probably dip into capital and increase my call option risk exposure which is currently zero as I hold only Jan $20 '03calls purchased with profits!!!

To: minnow68 who wrote (72993)	3/2/2002 9:58:07 PM
From: TGPTNDR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Mike, Re: <while staying on the wrong side of Black Scholes> Selling covered calls is less risky than holding stock. In a rising market it is also less profitable. In a falling market it is less lossey. There is a problem with Black Scholes which is that the option risk profile does not fit the standard model. Population at the fringes is substantially higher than one would expect. tgptndr

To: minnow68 who wrote (72993)	3/2/2002 10:40:35 PM
From: Ali Chen	Respond to of 275872

minnow, "Did you notice that Elmer has calculated his annual ROI..." Given his ability to "calculate" "gains" from operations like he described here: Message 16833577 , siliconinvestor.com I would check three times his ROI calculations... ;-) - Ali

To: minnow68 who wrote (72993)	3/3/2002 1:17:15 AM
From: bacchus_ii	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

RE:"The reason that Elmer is not richer than Gates is that he is probably playing a game that carries a risk of catastrophic loss. If he plays it long enough, it can blow up pretty badly. Some stories I find somewhat relevant. I hope you find them entertaining." Well, it's hard for Droid like me to defend an inteleby like Elmer, but I have to... First I would say that I think Elmer is honest in giving his trade when he does it. All the BS about retroactive trade is only this... It's up to anybody to think he didn't really made those trade... we can calculate the move if we follow the tread and if he is winner or loser on a trade, that's the only thing we can judge his strategy. My guest Elmer don't make trade all the time. If he is like me on this, he sell PUT when the exercised total cost of the share is a price that suite to him. If ever the option is exercised, he start selling CC, increasing revenue out of this position until he is exercised again and that close the position. With those Nasdaq shares that never give any or too little dividends, it's the only way to make a revenue. It's safer then buy and sell shares because you got a discount when you buy and a prime when you sell. Otherwise it's playing the market as any other investor. Elmer said he is now where he was 2 years ago. I'm in a much better position then him (percentage wise of course). What kill him is much more due to his long-term stock position than due to his option position. Minnow, your wrong attacking him as if he was "gambler" because he have a special discipline trading this market. Yes we can lose in the market, but you failed to analyze the strategy and compare it to strait shares trading. I'm a lot more conservative than most people on this tread and my revenue expectation is to use my margin from my bond portfolio to double the interest revenue by selling put or CC when exercised. It's fare from being greedy and usually doable. I'm not sure I will succeed again this year because for me, in a bear market, I try not to be caught long on share at price not near book value. I've mist my re-entry this week by 5¢ :-((( my 5¢ Gottfried