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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Softechie who wrote (36323)	3/2/2002 10:07:25 PM
From: shoreco	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Softechie..Friday was a snow job. They used the economic numbers and the bogus NVLS report to blow some more smoke to cloud the air while they changed the screen set. The problem is I already read the book and I have a good feeling of how the story ends. Let's start with NVLS... They said they feel they seen the bottom (so did ORCL), they said they see new orders picking up (so did ORCL, they said they should lose 9 cents instead of 10 cents (only a penny difference) (so did ORCL). They went up 14% on a penny. (so when I hear all the ORCL'ers screaming it's only a penny, I want to be the first to remind them about NVLS's penny). OK, That is great news, I'm happy for them, but that news came out in AH on Thursday and if that news was that great, NVLS would have tacked on 2-3pts in AH...they didn't which leaves me to believe that all the headlines that followed on Friday along with the "great caper" rally sucked in some wacky longs and caused some stubborn shorts to capitulate and cover. It's KLAC that has me scratching my head ?? Now, let's talk about this recovery. I agree things are getting better, they should, but it's not going to explode in "Tech" land like everyone thinks. I watched the price of a DELL computer go down over 20% since Xmas and Mikey has them being built in Malaysia now. The auto makers have to bring back 0% financing otherwise they will have to shut down plants and lay-off workers. If they do this they will lose even more money do to down time and that great GDP number would go negative. That's great, we need to give away cars and watch the Government go on a "War time" spending spree just to get the GDP positive. Now let's get back to the market, We have AMZN on Wed and we have INTC on Thur, anything can happen from now until then. "Yes" we are oversold, but we stayed overbought for over 10 years. Enough said... I have nothing against anyone going long for a trade, but I have a big problem with the crooks who scream if I don't buy now I'm going to miss the train. Take a look at this Monthly chart of the S&P500 and you'll notice they'll be plenty of time to get on when we finally turn around. stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G EOM Shoreco PS When the housing industry "pops" it will take the banks with it.