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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Softechie who wrote (36327)	3/3/2002 1:35:32 AM
From: SOROS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Greenspan is not the idiot that he has been in the past. He is a primary contributor to the mess the USA faces now, BUT, I think he and Bush realize the problem they have and the ONLY possible, yet unlikely solution. We are now in a situation of MASSIVE debt -- personal, corporate, government. They have NO CHOICE but to keep the money presses running at FULL SPEED. They will TRY to inflate out of this debt. They will cut taxes and do whatever it takes to TRY to keep consumers, businesses, and the government SPENDING. They HOPE they can keep this spending going until the economy is back up to capacity again. The plan is for taxes at that point to allow them to balance the budget and possibly pay back some debt. The PROBLEMS could be twofold. IF the consumer can't maintain the ability for more and more consumption, the House that Alan Built comes crashing down. The other SERIOUS problem I see is the ACCOUNTING issues. During the first NINE months of 2001 the companies that make up the NASDAQ 100 reported over 80 BILLION DOLLARS in LOSSES to the SEC. What did they report to SHAREHOLDERS? 19 BILLION in PROFITS!!!! Let that SINK in! There is a DIFFERENCE of 101 BILLION dollars. That's more than ONE BILLION DOLLARS PER COMPANY!!! This PROVES that ENRON is not the only company using PRO-FORMA CRAP to SUCK the MONEY from the American Investor by deception and lies. If the TRUTH comes out for all these companies, and people are willing to ONLY value these companies by GAAP standards, the fall in market caps will be BRUTAL. SO, can the FED and the Government keep spending going in those areas where America does not have to compete with foreign countries -- housing, healthcare, and "legal" type businesses? Because we CAN'T compete with CHINA in other manufacturing areas. My guess is they created TOO LARGE of a BUBBLE with the accompanying TOO LARGE of DEBT at ALL LEVELS, and the unwinding MUST take place. Perhaps the catalyst will be WAR. Perhaps natural disaster (my inclination). But for Greenspan's and Bush's plan of SPEND our way out of this PROBLEM to succeed, everything must go perfectly, and in today's world, with SO MANY things that LOOM, I'd say the chances are SLIM. I remain, SOROS