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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (5779)	3/5/2002 1:36:05 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

HI Jon, another great missive by Stephen Roach. The guy is brilliant. I love to see the thinkings of Ed Hyman and Stephen Roach. Both are top flight thinkers. this is an excellent point that Roach has: "I am in complete agreement with Barton Biggs on this key point: Just as the downside of the current business cycle is unlike any of those of the recent past, so the upside should be equally distinctive. Sure, there has been plenty of classic counter-cyclical stimulus -- massive monetary easing, some tax cuts, and lower energy prices. Just because this medicine has worked in the past doesn’t mean it will work this time. " I think we can have a double dip downturn, but I do think that we could ride this first upturn into the middle or end of Q 2. That would help to amplify current underlying imbalances and excesses; and set up the enviroment for a slip either late this year or in early 2003. thanks for posting. John