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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StanX Long who wrote (61277)	3/3/2002 3:34:51 PM
From: John Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Re FLEX & CREE: Stan, Thanks for posting all this info. I must admit, however, that I do not understand all of the various numbers on FLEX and CREE that were posted here. I try to keep it pretty simple in picking stocks. I look at things like basic valuation metrics (PE, PEG, P/S, P/B) , try to evaluate survival odds (projected earnings, cash, debt, market-cap/size, market share, cash-burn, insider ownership, earnings risk) then I consider industry trends, Wall Street bias (try to go against mostly), basic chart technicals (long and short term), management record/goals, insider buying/not-buying, the technology/product/service, etc. In the case of AMAT I think all here would agree it is rock solid. What we don't all agree on I guess is whether it is overpriced or not (e.g. John Neff is shorting this year), and how far the stock can go up in the near-term from these levels, given INTC capex cutbacks, etc. Right now AMAT looks to be on a roll, but perhaps it stalls out at 50 or so. I would be surprised if it doubled in the next 2-3 months, however. FLEX and CREE seem to have a better shot at this based on recent chart patterns. So I am sort of gambling they have better upside right here, which may be totally wrong of course. I might change my mind at any point and go fully back into AMAT. Right now I have some short-term trading gains in AMAT which make it easier for me to take this risk. I like to be more in the volatile stocks when the market is moving up, and like to be more in the solid stocks as we top out. I am becoming more of a trader I guess because it seems it can reward better than buy and hold in technology. If the Nasdaq just bounces around these levels for the next year or so, then trading will probably be the way to go during this time. My strategy is evolving. All this is much easier in theory of course. I appreciate any inputs on CREE and FLEX. Regards, John

To: StanX Long who wrote (61277)	3/3/2002 6:45:01 PM
From: StanX Long	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

My take would be to buy in this order, 1. JBL 2. Flex 3. SLR, five year returns not too good. 4. CREE I like low PE too, as well as I like the five year return, Latest LatestRelative Latest Total Return Quarterly 12-month Strength Fiscal(5-yr trailing) Return Total Return Total Return JBL 13.80% -15.80% 32.20% -63.70% 245.10% FLEX 45.00% -15.80% 41.80% -57.40% 507.40% SLR 8.10% -49.10% 9.10% -69.80% 25.10% CREE 99.30% -17.10% 47.00% -60.80% 516.60% SANM 46.50% -48.10% 12.40% -71.00% 84.50% CLS 48.20% -25.50% 62.20% -25.50% N/C* HELX 39.30% -2.90% 31.10% -2.90% 41.30% AMAT 28.00% -13.20% 53.30% -35.80% 313.80% Look at the Analysts' target, PEG and how far down from the 52 high as well as up from the low. I have most faith in the William's R%, the first few stocks have big buy indication for W%R. JBL $19.44 Today 41.7 RSI Analysts' Target: $37.23 91.50% -93.1 WR% PEG Value: $36.96 90.10% PE CY 42.45 PE Next Year 23.82 52 week low $14.00 $5.44 38.86% up from the low 52 week high $38.25 $18.81 -49.18% value from the high FLEX $15.09 Today 34.9 RSI Analysts' Target: $42.68 182.80% -93 WR% PEG Value: $29.58 96.00% PE CY 24.34 PE Next Year 21.40 52 week low $12.38 $2.72 21.94% up from the low 52 week high $33.10 $18.01 -54.41% value from the high SLR $8.29 Today 33.4 RSI Analysts' Target: $31.17 276.00% -97.6 WR% PEG Value: $25.81 211.40% PE CY 33.70 PE Next Year 13.82 52 week low $8.09 $0.20 2.47% up from the low 52 week high $30.69 $22.40 -72.99% value from the high CREE $15.80 Today 40.6 RSI Analysts' Target: $73.00 362.00% -84.6 WR% PEG Value: $21.90 38.60% PE CY 44.38 PE Next Year 29.64 52 week low $12.21 $3.59 29.40% up from the low 52 week high $36.65 $20.85 -56.89% value from the high SANM $10.32 Today 34 RSI Analysts' Target: $50.22 386.60% -95.3 WR% PEG Value: $27.14 163.00% PE CY 64.10 PE Next Year 13.13 52 week low $9.57 $0.75 7.84% up from the low 52 week high $36.20 $25.88 -71.49% value from the high CLS $32.52 Today 3.9 RSI Analysts' Target: $67.68 108.10% -94 WR% PEG Value: $49.73 52.90% PE CY 22.05 PE Next Year 17.63 52 week low $20.69 $11.83 57.18% up from the low 52 week high $63.25 $30.73 -48.58% value from the high HELX $20.34 Today 45.8 RSI Analysts' Target: $37.25 83.10% -72.1 WR% PEG Value: ($7.00) -134.40% PE CY (113.00) PE Next Year 39.12 52 week low $14.75 $5.59 37.90% up from the low 52 week high $33.44 $13.10 -39.17% value from the high AMAT $47.98 Today 57.3 RSI Analysts' Target: $62.62 30.50% -6.5 WR% PEG Value: $36.47 -24.00% PE CY 175.11 PE Next Year 36.40 52 week low $26.59 $21.39 80.44% up from the low 52 week high $59.10 $11.12 -18.82% value from the high