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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (10956)	3/3/2002 11:01:06 AM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 19219

To which I respond go digging for my Chuck Hill from First Call post on why markets move 20% + higher in the immediate 12 - 18 months out in the current quarter registering little or no growth 0% - 5% growth... This also in conjunction with moving towards the seasonal Bullish pre-election year highs into 2003 after the market has been down two years in a row and record short open interest... An explosive upside mix. Inventories from Y2K continue to get worked off and drawn down for the next level of productivity and orders to pick up. Best Regards, J.T.

To: marginmike who wrote (10956)	3/3/2002 12:17:59 PM
From: dvdw©	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 19219

It's nonsense to paint the market with such a broad brush Mike. I do mostly small caps and I can tell you they are an incredible value at todays prices. Look at CMTL it's added 100 million to it's bottom line since Jan 99 yet is selling at almost 2/3rds the price. How do you rationalize this disconnect Mike? I have a list 20 deep that manifest this same disconnect. I'll tell you how, IMO it's simple Supply demand obfuscation. There are thousands of SI posters who have disconnected from doing stock DD to painting the markets with a brush that turns these participants into boobs. It is apparent from following the Popular threads, Zeevs, and others that the POST bubble mania bears, have little or no context in a micro economic sense to make the calls they are making. As a person who counts shares I've seen the destruction of value by ignorant shorts become the momentum of the day. As a person who learned to focus on Supply imbalances, I see value and growth everywhere, the fact that you dont means your not looking. I run a company and have a daily direct relationship with the economy, buying everything from chemicles to capital equipment. There is tremendous value in many small, and mid caps, for those with open eyes. People generalize the distribution of CSCO with 7 Billion shares in the market to a point of absurdity. Look at NOC and TRW, these equivalent size companies with floats of under 125 million shares are ridiculously priced. Focus on the Price to sales ratios and you'll find plenty of reason to be bullish. Leadership is changing, CSCO neednt lead the market back up, in fact all those large cap tech companies who expanded their floats during the bubble are the wrong investments today. Get over the laziness and start doing real analysis, because that is what it's going to take to make money now. It's easy to short the market, all that requires is a comfort with the prevailing sentiment. All these posters railing on valuations, are simply not looking in the right places for Today. Lazy people prefer to stay in the patterns of the past, Mr Market is bigger than a handfull of Companies, popular as some might be. Find the values and Play the scarcity present in many of tomorrows leading companies. You'll make a lot more money than generalizing everything to a handfull of companies in distribution. Short interest is going to be a factor in some spectacular rebounds soon. When Scarcity meets OBFUSCATION, it's nitroglcerin. The small and Mid caps I know are all under price suppression programs, disproportionatly short. Anyone with a brain knows that these conditions must be rectified, and they will be. Two weeks ago I got a call from a prominent local attorney who wanted me to put money into a fund to short stocks of Arthur Anderson clients, this is the mindset of many. I laughed at the guy and will never call him for my needs again. What the story depicts is a bunch of low bandwidth people who lack appropriate skill to identify investments so they GAMBLE on fashionable trends. There is way too much of this in the market, as these popular SI threads show. Seller beware.