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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (10966)	3/3/2002 5:54:11 PM
From: dvdw©	Respond to of 19219

Greetings Dan, To be honest I have no idea, I would never buy an Index. But I will comment on this part of what you said; "A flight from the old stars to stocks that are fairly valued or undervalued will continue to put pressure on indexes like the NDX until all the old high flyers are replaced by the emerging leaders. It's part of the magic of indexes that when stocks falter they are thrown out and replaced by emerging leaders," That Magic as you call it, actually rigs the game against investors, and allows the Market to constantly recalibrate the deck. As an investor who does due diligence on fundamentals, this is an opposite point of view. I would never use indexes as investments. They are just pieces of paper with expiration dates. My psychology as an investor is to Buy something I want to own. Not the Fashion, fluff or current momentum of it, but the root value I can perceive in it looking forward. I prefer to focus on the Supply demand dynamics that are everpresent in every stock, every day. My best Investments are plays on scarcity, as splits and awareness of forward looking fundamentals are my preferred formula to succeeding in the market. Spotting the eventual cornerstones of these indexes early, before everyone else does. In my world, Supply and demand rule the market and the Supply /demand equation of each companies Float becomes a relative constant for deciding the trading pattern of the stock. Passing that test, you move through the hardships of learning, to teach yourself to use this constant, within the context of a psychological market, where Obfuscation is used to trump the constant. The Important Small/Mid Caps had recognition waves in an Elliot wave sense in fall 99, those waves were sold short by the market by April 2000 and continued short until now. Now we are entering phase 3. And it's a another ball game.