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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (36491)	3/3/2002 7:14:29 PM
From: shoreco	Respond to of 99280

mishedlo, "Is QQQ 40 possible?"... Only if INTC started using AA for an accountant.... IMO, INTC will move this market either way...... The analyst pumped INTC for all it was worth raising 02 and 03 estimates like INTC just hit the lottery and it rallied and traded between 32 and 36 while they unloaded. If GTW, DELL, HWP have 1 thing in common it's INTC.... Of course INTC might have a rabbit in their hat, so we need to keep an eye on the action. I'm sure they try and rally into the CC on Thursday... EOM Shoreco PS I mentioned this little trick here a couple weeks ago about how I felt this CC would create another short squeeze, maybe the last...

To: mishedlo who wrote (36491)	3/3/2002 8:48:27 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 99280

Mish: Thank you for your analysis. Maybe we do a fade from here and then bring them back for expiration week. Nasdaq is overbought. We were getting close to QQQ 37 ($35.85 AH before Oracle) and the market is not going to sit around for over a week and do nothing. We demand trading entertainment <g>!!! Market scared the shorts on Friday. Time to worry the longs with a fade maybe and then turn the vice gradually next week to the shorts again. I am thinking out loud and guessing. No prediction on this one. It is like writing a good script. INTC plays a leading role here. Chart looks like it is expecting disappointment.

To: mishedlo who wrote (36491)	3/3/2002 9:12:31 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Mish, I'm curious about the QQQ analysis, but I actually don't think there's any way to answer my rambling question that follows. Basically, is there any way for you or us or anyone to do a dollar weighted max pain? I ask this because there was A LOT of open interest in the March puts weeks ago -- in other words, puts bought when they cost a lot more than they do today. In fact, I dare say a lot of those puts could finish a buck or two in the money. . . and still be $$$ lost by the buyers. Same would be true of Dow Puts. Lots of folks bought puts when the Dow was battling with 10100. If, say, they bought 101 puts, between the lower Vix and the rise of 270 Dow points, it's gonna take a close well below 10000, my guess, to make that money back (for anyone who's still holding that is). Not to say that can't happen, of course, but that's beside the point. So, is it possible that this skews max pain in a way we can't really detect? Or is it better to just go on figgering in the same old way, since it's worked well in the past? thanks, the freep

To: mishedlo who wrote (36491)	3/3/2002 9:31:21 PM
From: dwayanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Hi Mishedlo: ...70K + 58K + 96K (224K) puts would close in the money vs a close at 40... etc etc BCA Software ( ez-pnf.com ) does their Max Pain calculation not on the count of contracts ITM, but rather on the dollar value of those contracts, eg Max Pain is when the total dollars paid on ITM put and call contracts is minimized. This makes Max Pain a lot messier to calculate, for example a $3 ITM contract counts three times as much as a $1 ITM contract, and all ATM and OTM contracts count as zero. The iqAuto site ( iqauto.com ) says that they use a calculation method 'similar to one developed by BCA Software'. - dway