Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (16073)	3/4/2002 10:04:23 AM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Nice analogy, elmat: However, this recovery is the real thing, imo. It's becoming clear (to me, anyway) that what we have had is a sector recession that has hit high tech., telecomm and manufacturing (probably cause and effect) hard, but that the rest of the economy - services, construction, the consumer - has not been in recession at all. The pain in telecomm and manufacturing has been masked in the aggregate numbers by the strength in the other sectors of the economy. Manufacturing should now come back very strong following an unusually long and painful slowdown. The incredible inventory drawdown that has taken place should contribute strongly to 2002 GDP as the drawdown stops and the rest of the economy will likely continue with its current strength, giving us a very, very good 2002. This all suggests that the Fed will begin to edge the Federal Funds Rate up soon, possibly as soon as in a couple of months, interest rates will move up slightly, supporting the dollar, which will remain strong, doom and gloom will dissipate like snowflakes in August and we will see a tsunami of buying interest in common stocks. And dare I say it, gold will head south of the border once more. All hail, US demographics. All hail, all-seeing, all-powerful, ineffable Uncle Al.