I'll bet our institutional levels are near the same when we end the first quarter - although probably a few shares changed institutional hands. Actually, it wouldn't surprise me if the drop shook out more retail investors than institutional investors.
Short interest was up to 3.44 million for the period ending February 15th, so it wouldn't surprise me if some hedge funds caught short was largely responsible for the drop.
Nokia remains confident that they will be selling 50 million Java phones this year and so far, Digital River is their only partner for the software that runs on these phones. Digital River gets about 15% to 20% of the price of the sold software and the prices range from $10 to $40. So we are talking over $100 million in net revenues if these new phone owners download just one item from the software store.
Nokia's Top-Secret Developer Mission
In a quiet effort to spur Java applications for its forthcoming phones, the No. 1
phone manufacturer invited a small group of software developers to enter its
R&D buildings for a confidential workshop.
BY PEGGY ALBRIGHT
FEBRUARY 4, 2002
WIRELESS WEEK
wirelessweek.com
Irving, Texas—Late last month, a select group of software developers signed
non-disclosure agreements and convened in a classroom in Nokia's top-secret
research and development building here to learn how to create Java
applications for Nokia's forthcoming wireless phones.
The exclusive two-day meeting brought together developers from mega and
supercarriers, including Vodafone and Cingular Wireless, and people from top
Internet service providers, such as America Online Inc., and data security
companies, such as Symantec. But it also included developers from lesser
known, small entrepreneurial software development companies–the types of
companies that have helped drive innovation in the Internet with Java
applications and whose participation in the mobile Internet business ecosystem
is considered essential to its success.
"The center of my world is your applications," Gerard Bruen, global sales
manager of Forum Nokia, told the developers. And what did he hear from
them? An earful. They have difficulty getting access to executives at wireless
operating companies who hold the key to everyone's business. Small
companies can barely afford the sales and promotion and business negotiation
costs required when working with operators. Killer applications are often
custom applications for small to medium-sized enterprises, not mass-market
applications, and they are harder to sell to carriers. Developers had an
important question, too: How can Nokia help them?
Bruen responded that Nokia has developer programs and a business partner
matchmaking service in place to ease the process for developers and
operators alike. By bringing together developers to meet with Nokia's own
business development leaders, the company hopes to build momentum in Java
applications development and create solutions that can be marketed for Nokia
mobile phones in the near term.
That, they did. It was the first time anyone outside Nokia got to see its first
Java-enabled handset aimed for mass-market distribution, although the
manufacturer would not say exactly when the phone will come out. It also was
the first time Nokia has brought developers in under nondisclosure agreements
to begin creating applications for a handset it has not yet introduced.
The event did not, on the other hand, teach the developers new programming
skills–most already were familiar with Java 2 Micro Edition, the skinny-down
version of the open standard that will be used to write applications for
low-power, small-screen devices. Many said they already are working with
Motorola, which was first to market with Java phones for Nextel
Communications Inc.'s iDEN network. Some are working with Qualcomm to
develop applications that run on that company's proprietary platform, the
binary runtime environment for wireless applications, called BREW for short.
Others likely have worked with Ericsson, another leading vendor that has
similar developer programs.
What the event gave each developer, however, was an opportunity to work
closely with some of the company's top business developers, who will now
work with the software specialists to promote the adoption of their applications
by service operators. It all was done in the name of speeding delivery of their
Java-based applications to market and helping create a market for these new
Java-powered devices.
Participants not only got a sneak preview of the initial Nokia Java handset, but
also a detailed technical look at its specifications and the application
programming interfaces that will be used in that first Java implementation, as
well as access to a software developers kit and phone emulator.
They also received a general roadmap of subsequent handset features and
user-interface concepts they can use to conceptualize applications for later
product lines. They learned how Nokia will work with them and its many other
software developers, via its Forum Nokia and associated programs, to bring
operators and developers together.
That Nokia is opening up its development process in this manner says as much
about the company today as it does about the industry, which is exploring new
methods of doing business as the mobile Internet comes to fruition. As Nokia
characterizes it, the wireless world no longer has the luxury of selling just
voice, which the manufacturer views as a single application with a very long
but profitable life cycle. The emerging mobile Internet world, it believes, will
change constantly and will have a series of "service tornadoes" that bring a
succession of applications and services to market.
The company says it is determined to sell 50 million Java-enabled handsets this
year and 100 million by the end of 2003. Nokia business executives at the
workshop reiterated that they intend to hit those numbers. Compare that with
the current market. Right now, 18 manufacturers are shipping Java-enabled
handsets and more than 14 million Java handsets have been shipped in the
world to date, says Erik Chu, group manager for industry marketing in Sun
Microsystems Inc.'s Software Systems Group.
If Nokia maintains its market position and mobile devices do eclipse wired ones
as Internet-access devices, the company believes it could become the biggest
single supplier of Java devices on the planet. "The crowd [at this event] is
looking for the biggest manufacturer," Chu says. He and others from his
company were at the Nokia J2ME workshop to show support for the
manufacturer. Sun also brought several developers to the conference.
While the workshop itself focused on driving applications for specific Nokia
devices, the overall need to make the mobile Internet succeed in a business
environment that is larger than the company itself was a pervasive theme. "It's
terribly important for Nokia globally to make sure this market comes about,"
says Lee Wright, director of strategic partnerships for the Americas.
He and his colleagues emphasize that this is something every company must
achieve, not just Nokia, although because of its sheer size, Nokia
acknowledges perhaps a greater obligation and responsibility to help bring this
about.
In the next few months, Wireless Internet Magazine will follow some of the
developers who attended the event and profile their progress. |
