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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (20599)	3/4/2002 6:36:28 PM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 281500

Hi Nadine Carroll; Re: "You forget the power imbalance between the PA and the IDF. When it does come, it will take a week and a few thousand dead at most. Israel will reoccupy PA territory ..." Got Lebanon? -- Carl

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (20599)	3/4/2002 6:56:02 PM
From: Ish	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

<<The model for the operation is Jordan's Black September in 1970.>> I was in Germany during the 1970 set to in a US Ambulance company as part of a MASH company. 8 days left in the service and my end of enlistment was cancelled. By the third day all the extra blood in the US European theater was gone. It was over before we were able to mobilize and I came on home.

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (20599)	3/4/2002 9:15:04 PM
From: Win Smith	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

The model for the operation is Jordan's Black September in 1970. That doesn't seem like quite the right model. I'm sure you know more about it than these links show, it was before my time but these accounts seem to indicate a fairly close battle that Jordan could, conceivably, have lost. Especially considering the Syrian involvement. onwar.com geocities.com . The first link shows Jordan taking fairly severe losses, greater than the PLO suffered, though I don't know how accurate those figures are. I can't see that Jordan ever had anywhere near the military strength of the current IDF, though, and I can't see the current PA having anything like the military capability the PLO had in Jordan. Arafat has no tanks, no artillery. I guess he wants to go out in a blaze of glory or something, like Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. The river Jordan is deep and wide, but if I read the maps correctly Arafat doesn't have much chance of making it there anyway. On another topic, something from a couple months ago you might appreciate. theatlantic.com This is Reuel Marc Gerecht, ex-CIA type, I've cited his "The Counterterrorist Myth" article previously. This article was posted here by SR, not to much notice though. Gerecht's view of Arab perceptions of the US seems to match yours. Still doesn't have much hope for the CIA, though.