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Strategies & Market Trends : Making Money is Main Objective -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lightwave51 who wrote (1980)	3/5/2002 3:56:10 PM
From: lightwave51	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2155

I think we are in a structural bear market that will last for five to 10 years. It is not a nice picture. But it will not go straight down. From time to time there will be fiscal and monetary stimulus. Markets will get oversold and will rise for awhile. Markets will zigzag downward. It will not be over until stocks trade at attractive valuation levels. Don't forget that the norm for the U.S. stock market over the past 80 years is a price/earnings ratio of about 15. The current reading is in the 40s. Most structural bear markets usually hit a low where stocks trade at book value. When the stock market trades at book, you get a lot of stocks that trade below book and are good values. Book value [for the S&P] right now is $220 and the S&P index now [is] at about 1,100. It is still trading at a valuation level higher than in any historic period. People are looking back and saying the market has come down 20 percent to 30 percent. We had a rally from September to January. Then down we go. It may go up again next fall, and then there will be another decline. iht.com