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Strategies & Market Trends : Anthony @ Equity Investigations, Dear Anthony, -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Anthony@Pacific who wrote (75186)	3/5/2002 2:41:52 PM
From: Stockdoctor	Respond to of 122087

Will INTC warn on THURSDAY???? Barron's, March 4, 2002, p 17 "Investors spooked by unpleasant surprises in companies SEC filings will want to sell first & ask questions later, he (Chris Wolfe, equity strategist at JP Morgan Private Bank) said. Firms with a growth by acquisition story such as Cendant, Cisco or Tyco International or companies that used cash to create venture arms, such as Intel or Adobe, could come under scrutiny." In addition to accounting problems, Intel has an Asian Contagion problem. Oracle warned Friday after the close & its stock plunged. Oracle warned due to the powerful business downturn in Asia. Oracle only has 13% of its revs coming from Asia as per their last earnings report at www.oracle.com/corporate/investor_relations/Q202AnalystSpdshts.pdf when you do the math using their Geographic Revenue section. Intel, however, has nearly 4 times as much exposure to Asian contagion as does Oracle since Intel gets 42% of their revs from Asia as per their last earnings report at www.intc.com/pressroom/archive/releases/20020115corp.htm The Oracle warning creates an extremely disappointing outlook for tech stocks going forward. To wit: This was supposed to be a lay-up. The compares were supposed to be getting easier ... It's kind of grim," said Mark Verbeck, a principal in the San Francisco office of ThinkEquity Partners, an investment banking & institutional research firm. Also: Oracle's warning probably will dash hopes for a revival in the depressed high-tech sector. "This casts a pall over everything," said industry analyst George Gilbert of Credit Suisse First Boston. As well as accounting problems noted by Barron's & as well as having nearly 4 times as much Asian Contagion as Oracle due to the fact that 42% of Intel's global revs come directly from Asia, Intel also has WARNING RUMOR problems. To wit: 4:21 ET Intel rumor (INTC) 33.95 +0.57: -- Update -- We are hearing from multiple sources that a rumor is flying around the Street that INTC's qtr is tracking below forecast due to pricing pressure on the P4. We have no confirmation of this rumor. Intel is scheduled to give its mid-quarter update this Thursday, March 7, after the close. If Intel warns, like Oracle did due to Asian Contagion (recall, Intel has nearly 4 times as much exposure to Asian Contagion as Oracle), then one can expect Intel's share price to experience a substantial & immediate "evaporation" on the evening of this Thursday, March 7th, just as Oracle has. Ironically, one year ago on March 1, 2001, Oracle warned then its stock plunged as well: 1-Mar-01 21.38 2-Mar-01 16.88 5-Mar-01 17.00 6-Mar-01 17.63 7-Mar-01 18.63 8-Mar-01 17.50 9-Mar-01 16.38 12-Mar-01 15.19 13-Mar-01 16.94 14-Mar-01 16.06 15-Mar-01 14.69 16-Mar-01 14.06 19-Mar-01 15.44 20-Mar-01 14.38 21-Mar-01 14.75 22-Mar-01 15.50 23-Mar-01 15.88 26-Mar-01 15.69 27-Mar-01 16.65 28-Mar-01 15.10 29-Mar-01 14.52 30-Mar-01 14.98 2-Apr-01 15.32 3-Apr-01 13.25 4-Apr-01 13.66 5-Apr-01 14.74 6-Apr-01 13.86 Intel, should it also warn this Thursday & prove the rumors true, given its accounting problems noted by Barron's plus its Asian Contagion, very well may experience a price plunge far greater than what Oracle is likely to experience this week, due to the fact that Oracle has no reported accounting problems like Intel, plus Intel has nearly 4 times the Asian Contagion of Oracle. In Sept 2000, major house analysts upgraded Intel 2 days before its mid-quarter "update" like Intel's mid-quarter update this Thursday, & then Intel warned & an approximate & immediate 20%+ price drop ensued. So much for analyst recommendations, eh? Today, 2 days before earnings, they've done the same thing. Think you should sell/short?