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To: AC Flyer who wrote (16239)	3/5/2002 6:36:30 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

We can't use the term collapse to refer to the US returning to its 'natural size'. It is going to be slow and over a long period of time. So slow that people will even realize what they have missed. It works like that: Argentina is a plane start losing altitude starting from 1.000m above ground. The US -and Japan for that matter- are planes starting losing altitude from 11Km up in the air, 33.000 feet and then the altimeterr shows its dropping. So if a country like the US and Japan starts falling from 33.000ft, it can glide and manouver to disguise the kaboom. But anything that goes up...

To: AC Flyer who wrote (16239)	3/5/2002 6:38:42 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

What is to return to a 'natural size': “The geographical size, population, and natural resources of the British Isles would suggest that it ought to possess 3 or 4% of the world’s wealth and power, all other things being equal; but it is precisely because all other things are never equal that a peculiar set of circumstances permitted the British Isles to expand to possess, say 25% of the world’s wealth and power in its prime; and since those favorable circumstances have disappeared, all that it has being doing is returning down to its more ‘natural’ size. In the same way, it may be argued that the geographical extent, population, and natural resources of the U.S. suggest that it ought to possess perhaps 16 or 19% of the world’s wealth and power, but because of historical and technical circumstances favourable to it, that share rose to 40% or more by 1945; and what we are witnessing at the moment is the early decades of the ebbing away from that extraordinarily high figure to a more ‘natural’ share.” Kennedy Paul, (1988), The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, Fontana Press, London.