To: John Soileau who wrote (19150 ) 3/25/2002 6:12:54 AM From: elmatador Respond to of 21876 Wireless infrastructure makers must merge analysts say By Ben Klayman and Ian Karleff, Reuters 25 March 2002 Just four or five wireless equipment vendors will remain after consolidation. A merger of the Motorola Inc. and Nortel Networks Corp. wireless infrastructure businesses will do little to relieve pressure on the industry's weaker companies regardless of whether it succeeds or not, analysts and investors said on Friday. Motorola, the world's No. 2 wireless telephone maker, and Canada's Nortel, one of the world's largest makers of telecommunications equipment, are in talks to combine their wireless network equipment units, BusinessWeek reported on Thursday. With the global wireless infrastructure market struggling, most analysts believe a consolidation will whittle the numbers down to four or five major players, with two definitely being Sweden's Ericsson and Finland's Nokia. "Without a dance partner, you're just out of luck," said Shawn Campbell, an analyst with Northern Trust Corp.'s asset management arm, which owns stock in both Motorola and Nortel. "It certainly puts more pressure on the remaining players to consider what they're going to do with their business and it probably accelerates that decision-making process," he added. "If you see an actual deal happen, then you're going to see everyone else scrambling to do something." In addition to Motorola and Nortel, other weak or small players that need to reexamine their strategies include Lucent Technologies Inc., Germany's Siemens AG, France's Alcatel and South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., analysts said. Motorola and Nortel declined to comment on speculation, but Motorola executives have acknowledged in the past that they are talking with everyone in the industry. Every company in the sector is doing that, several analysts said. 'YOU HAVE TO GET MARRIED' The pressure has intensified on everyone in the industry as customers cut spending, analysts and company officials say. Motorola and Ericsson have said the global market will fall as much as 10 percent this year. "The (mergers and acquisitions) pressures have just begun. There's absolute imperative to rationalize the business. It's going to happen," U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray analyst Samuel May said. "You can't just be dating or shacking up, you have to get married." Ericsson and Nokia are feeling less pressure as they have been winning most of the 3G, or third-generation, contracts, analysts said. With research expenses so high, it's only natural that companies may seek to cut costs by combining. "It just doesn't make sense to be chasing the leftovers from Nokia and Ericsson with the huge amounts of research and development dollars it takes to keep up with these tremendous shifts in technology," Northern Trust's Campbell said. Ericsson has 30 percent and Nokia 13 percent of the global wireless infrastructure market, according to technology market research firm Yankee Group. They are followed by Motorola (12 percent), Lucent (11 percent), Nortel (10 percent), Siemens (7 percent) and Alcatel (3 percent). MOTOROLA NEEDS TO DO SOMETHING A Motorola-Nortel combination would create a strong No. 2 player with an ability to offer end-to-end solutions, S.G. Cowen analyst Christin Armacost said in a research note. She believes Motorola will take some kind of action this year or early next year because of its declining market share. Some analysts said the most likely scenario given Nortel's lack of cash would be a separate company created from Motorola and Nortel's wireless infrastructure businesses that eventually would be spun off to the two companies' shareholders. Alliances and joint ventures are one approach already in use in Europe, where Siemens and Alcatel have allied with Japan's NEC Corp. and Fujitsu Ltd., respectively, Gartner Group analyst Jason Chapman said. This is not the first time Motorola's wireless infrastructure business, which makes the transmitters that send and receive cell-phone signals, has been linked with a rival. Last fall, reports had the Chicago area-based company talking with Siemens. Also last year, a Lucent-Alcatel merger collapsed over control issues. Lucent officials dismiss the idea they need to bolster their business, which some analysts have speculated the New Jersey-based company may eventually spin off. "Lucent couldn't be more ideally positioned to be a very strong player - and in fact be a leader - in third-generation networks. We have a complete end-to-end portfolio," Lucent spokeswoman Mary Lou Ambrus said.