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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (10266)	3/5/2002 11:47:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

RE: " I have a "gut feeling" that shipments are going to peak in this cycle before they reach the peak of 2000." We all are guilty of using "cycle" for just about everything. The 2000 peak and the current trough are not "normal" results of a semi-equip/semi over/under capacity dynamic. They were "bubble" side effects. Your "this cycle" will continue to be affected by the "bubble" aftermath. I see a very slow recovery and an unusually long up cycle. I continue to wonder if AMAT will reach $20B in 2007-8. Certainly the industry will have made some significant moves along Moore's Law's curve by then. I don't see strong capacity drivers for a while, but technology will evolve and the combination of new technology applications and the movement in time away from the "bubble" aftermath will accelerate the recovery to all time highs in technology sales, possibly in the 2007-8 time frame. I would appreciate any comments on my scenario and the scenario you use to conclude that the peak will be below 2000's peak. TIA