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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (16288)	3/6/2002 4:35:55 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Ray, On your question, I will make up the answer as I go. Just observations, as opposed to socio-econo-political commentary. Freddie and Fannie will blow up, because they simply will, and will call on tax payer bailout, even as the fight against a mostly invisible but all pervasive enemy saps more and more of the same stuff that fuels housing boom and maintains equity/debt stability, while the whole lot is financed by recycling of trade dollars skimmed from a rather large deficit, even as the war causes its own fiscal deficit, just as folks will be wanting to think retirement, and reduced/slowed down trade due to war jams the feedback circuitry, and the whole mess to be made worse by trade wars and competitive printing. Now, if trade deficits do not matter, and faith in fiscal conservatism is not valued, then no problems. Otherwise, look for the exit, and now. Paul Wolfowitz and William Krystol will not be able to do what Greenspud cannot, holding up what apparently wants to fall, forever, in view of other demands continuously popping out of nowhere, requiring newly split attention. Wolfo and Krysto will need to keep up the int'l investors faith that the war is going well, and ending soon, regardless of the pronouncements about expecting a long war, because the war is financed out of trade and fiscal deficits and nothing more. W just wacked the Japanese, Koreans and Europeans on steel. Trade just got decreased a notch. With the expected retaliations, another notch. The direction is all wrong. I do not have any good ideas, but I am afraid of fighting against strongly motivated believers, and I am not wanting to meet 400 virgins in heaven or hell. I want to meet them on good old fashioned planet earth. news.ft.com <<Speaking to reporters on Monday, he said: "First let me say that our thoughts and prayers go out to the families and the friends of the service members who have lost their lives in our ongoing operations in Vietnam.">> On your P.S., in Maurice's simpler language, Uncle Li provides me with (a) electricity (HK Electric), (b) telecom services (PCCW, Hutchison Mobile), (c) supermarket locations (Park & Shop), (d) Trade logistic services (Hutchison), and hopefully also (e) GX bond exit. Uncle Li frighteningly controls about 40% of the HK stock market capitalization. I understand he started in plastic flowers. Chugs, Jay