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Biotech / Medical : Imclone systems (IMCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL who wrote (2173)	3/6/2002 9:01:26 AM
From: 613	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2515

Lawyers - the only profession who's job is to save you from others in the same profession!

To: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL who wrote (2173)	3/6/2002 9:11:27 AM
From: Cacaito	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2515

IRW, previous agreement was an "scale up" according to revenues/gross profit. Imcl was to get 60% of the drug income. Now is reduced to 40%, and no "scale up" (my interpretation, not completely clear myself). Bmy is being paid with the $100M reduction, Bmy take more risks, cause $140M is now as opposed to BLA acceptance, this Imcl guy is very smart. But, not clearcut in the press release is that Bmy MD/JD guy will be in charge of drug development "join" team. I think this is where Bmy will get some of the now $500M Imcl cash via "contract" services for the clinical trials. Imcl PROBABLY (not a fact, just a suspiciousness) will pay Bmy as a "CRO type" of business (CRO-Contract Research Organization as known in Wall Street, like Quintiles). Nothing yet about the Bmy lock up 3 year period to sell Imcl stock, this is very good for shareholders. IF Imcl Erbitux sales in 2007 (assuming approval in 2003) are $1 billion, then Imcl get $400M, if a P/S of 5x to 10x sales, then Market value high would be $2B to $4B ($$30 to 60 per share), way less than the peak $5.5B ($71 per share), THESE is without any dilution. Dilution should double the number of shares by 2007 (ask sam eager sharesolder), so the price per share should be about $15 to $30 at peak $1 billion sales Erbitux in 2007. In 3 years the Bmy selling pressure begins (it could still be earlier). Therefore, Imcl shares are overvalue at $23, they should be an aceptable risk at $7 to $10 !!! (same as I calculated before based on cash plus uncertainty of research). All assuming Erbitux is declared guilty !!!