Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GVTucker who wrote (58261)	3/6/2002 2:22:23 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

Tom's not alone in the view. Even if we take the "E" in tech stocks for granted and compute "P/E" ratios, really we are seeing fantastic multiples with little or no room for sustained upside price appreciation. It's either a supply/demand imbalance (again/still) or rate at which the market is discounting the uncertainty of future shocks is very very low. Or both. Either of which is very dangerous for the long term investor and a bounty for the short term flipper. Sure is a lot of optimism. I hope (optimisticly) that it's well founded, or there will be more of a price to pay. 30% from here (e.g. 1200-1300)would still have NASD on the high side of norms for 10 year price appreciation. Just to put things in perspective. John

To: GVTucker who wrote (58261)	3/6/2002 3:53:42 PM
From: andydaoust	Respond to of 77400

GV, I can't say one way or another where the market heads short term. I feel we'll take another dip though because the VIX is low. However, it looks like the SOX broke out. The economy is showing signs of recovery. There seems to be a lot of bankruptcies. Semi book to bill is improving, but it is questionable if it is inventory replacement or increased demand. So for me there is conflicting cross currents. I have noticed when everyone sees the market direction it usually does the opposite of the consensus. That includes myself. You know "the nasdaq can’t go up another 20% in 1998" only to smoke all who said it wouldn’t. I also think it is dangerous to compare today’s markets with past valuations. If we look to the past then NY trade volume would have to return to 200 million shares a day to be compared to 15 years ago. Interest rates at 9%, Few 401k’s, IRA’s etc. Over time the world is getting smaller and I think richer as many oppressed countries are free to pursue capitalism. So long term I think the market is bound to continue upward. Thanks for allowing my rant. Andy D