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To: Uncle Frank who wrote (9976)3/13/2002 12:42:44 PM
From: Jacob Snyder  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10934
 
Voodoo (TA, that is):

stockcharts.com[h,a]dahlnyay[df][pb50!b200!f][vc60]&pref=G

We've now set another intermediate low, in 2/02, and it's a higher low than the 9/01 low. Looks like we are going to make another run at the intermediate 1/02 high. Notice, the 200D moving average was support, on this dip, just as it was support over and over, in the long run-up to the 2000 all-time highs.

In June 2002, I will probably start selling my 2003 LEAPs. I will probably sell when we get 50% above the 200DMA, and then recycle the money into 2005 LEAPs, when we are retesting that average. At the moment, that would be: buy at 16, sell at 24.

Right now, the combined 2003s and 2004s are 20% of my net worth, and that's the upper limit of my comfort zone. I will sell enough, to not get above 20%, once I've held a year.

EMC seems to be, finally, rising off its floor (or basement, or sub-basement). Interesting, that buyout rumors are being taken seriously. When a stock is severely out of favor, often those rumors (and the buy-out prices that go with them) set a floor for the stock price. It's one of those good signals, like insider buying, indicating smart knowledgeable people think the assets are undervalued.

One of the things that worries me about the entire telco area, is that nobody is bidding anything for distressed assets, indicating the floor is zero, for those assets. Which has implications for the telco-equips and component suppliers. Even if we are in a new Bull Market, I may get a chance to buy CSCO, JDSU, ALTR, at near the 9/01 lows, sometime in 2002, or even 2003. Already have a lot of CSCO (bought recently at prices from 16.6 to 14.4), and thinking about the other two (JDSU at 5 and down, ALTR at 21 and down).