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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MSI who wrote (2054)	3/6/2002 8:10:12 PM
From: geode00	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

I seem to remember Brinker cautioning getting out of the market early 2000 and going into GNMAs. In January 2000 he advised selling about 60% of equities (from 100% if you were a fully invested more aggressive investor) and then to about 65%. He has never gone 100% to cash and has ridden this bear market down with everyone else including in his Microsoft and Vodafone holdings. He used to say that if he saw a bear he would side step it and go to cash. He either didn't see a bear or didn't believe his own "model". He really isn't bothering to explain anything so who knows what happened? His show IMO leaves the impression that he went 100% to cash in Q1 2000. That is not true and is merely spin. He also suggested a highly speculative gamble in the QQQ (NASDAQ 100) for up to 32.5% of your portfolio. At the bottom, it had declined nearly 70% while he had it on hold and was going after his own customers when they criticized his lack of trading skills (no stops anywhere). That money went into cash (except for the up to 50% that went into the QQQ trade) where it still sits earning just about nothing (which is still better than being in QQQs). He has advised GNMAs from time to time and they have been especially good because of the interest rate reductions. He's currently waiting for a positive call, as far as I know. I listen every few weeks. His sentiment indicator is excellent IMO He supposedly has a large number of indicators of which sentiment is only one. Currently, his valuation indicator is still negative as the S&P is (last month at any rate) at a pe of 28. That does not, however, suggest holding his QQQ trade debacle even though the pe is (at minimum ) twice that. That is hugely inconsistent and he hasn't bothered to explain the discrepancy. His real estate advice applies to people who expect to speculate, which works in some states better than others. I've done well with real estate but understand Brinker's advice, and know people who are naive and lost a lot of earning power by buying the wrong properties. I remember his advice being to homeowners, not speculators. To the best of my recollection, he said that real estate (this was several years ago) would only track inflation and not be a good investment except for the psychological benefit of home ownership. People I know have since doubled the value of their homes and would have missed out had they listened to him and not bought as investments. Surely some of the gains have been bubble-like and could go away as rates rise but then again, there is principal risk on bonds as well as rates rise. He isn't always right but he certainly always leaves the impression that he is always right. Bob the spin doctor. Caveat emptor.