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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (14087)	3/6/2002 6:48:43 PM
From: Wallace Rivers	Respond to of 78530

Boy, Paul - RBMG, a real flash from the past for me. Made some $$$$ trading it pre-crash, when Mr. G started ratcheting up rates. Never got back in, but anyone who did really coined some $$$$. Congrats on your win! Speaking of ratcheting up rates, I and it seems like most others think that is the most likely direction of interest rates in the near future. To hedge against this, I've taken a small position in a closed end fund which I mentioned here before - VVR (Van Kampen Senior Income Trust). This is essentially a junk bond fund, consisting of relatively short term senior loans (IMHO by being senior they are less "junky"). The dividend has been cut several times recently, and may be cut again. However, I feel that the dividend will uptick if and when rates start to back up, and the credit quality of the underlying loans will improve were the economy to improve. Trades at a significant discount to NAV - one of the issues with these loan participation funds has been the quality of NAV; in the July '01 annual, it is stated that 97% of the loans are priced by an independent pricing agency, so I think pricing is fair. This one won't make anyone a hero, but I think it's a pretty good place to be in this environment.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (14087)	3/6/2002 7:08:49 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78530

PGO. Thread: If anyone here is interested in reviewing a stock that seems to be garnering strong interest on several S.I. threads, while at the same time still being a stock that might actually (-g-) be a value stock for people here, then PGO is that stock. Seitel, a stock in the seismic data business similar to PGO, was discussed here a couple of years back, and as I recall, posters who bought then did see decent profits. I don't own SEI (missed it back then too), but I have started a small position in PGO. Company could have revenue accounting issues (barter agreements recognized as sales ala SEI which is dissed in current Forbes for such "sales" issues and management issues.) I like PGO because it seems to be a standard value stock - low p/book, low p/sales, and low current price compared to past prices in the oil/gas business cycle. I'll want to extra alert if I add to my position and how much I ultimately take: It's those bullish views by many apparently knowledgeable and successful and confident S.I. posters who have been buying PGO - and buying very heavily, it seems. For me, I can get caught up in the psychological issues related to all that. Pride/shame factors, inclusion needs vs. exclusion fears, getting on board the boat vs. missing the boat -- all that stuff that Ben Grahamers might ignore -g-. finance.yahoo.com Paul Senior, who has succumbed in the past to siren songs.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (14087)	3/10/2005 4:11:16 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78530

Added a few shares to my few shares of NTBK today. One way of looking at their business is that they are a mortgage company with an internet banking presence. With this view, the business and stock just don't seem to be attractive. Another view is that they are a bank selling below stated book value. No bank extant "should" sell that low. B.v. has increased in past years and may increase in future. I'll bet the stock ~ $8.83 (vs. stated b.v. $8.90) will be higher within a year. Jmo. finance.yahoo.com