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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (10289)	3/6/2002 9:02:17 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 10921

... do the three foundries overbuild by a wider margin because they're getting bad estimates from all 300+ customers? Depends primarily on the lead time between the purchase order and being able to put production volumes through the device. If all tools could be put into production within 1 month of an order, then the extremes of undercapacity / overcapacity would be tempered. As long as there's a 9 month + lead time on bleeding edge lithography tools for example, huge imbalances remain probable. I suppose it's possible that the imbalance may move to being primarily those tools with the longest lead times. ... or at least that's my theory.. :^) Re the Enron Crooks: If this wasn't a scheme to commit fraud from the get-go, why was one of the first questions Lay asked Watkins, "Have you reported this to the SEC yet?". And why didn't Lay then comply with his obligation to report the suspected accounting fraud to the SEC? He clearly understood his obligation to do so. Rather, it's starting to appear as if the officers just sped up their looting of Enron assets leading into the inevitable bankruptcy. What other explanation is there for a group of very bright, very capable managers taking no action to correct problems that could clearly be seen as leading directly to the end of their company? Clearly, if they all knew the extent of the off balance sheet debts, they understood there was no hope of getting out of the hole that they dug. And I've not heard any evidence that implies the officer team was unaware of the extent of the problem. IMHO and FWIW, Ian