Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (82747)	3/6/2002 10:39:10 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Equity P/C ratio is approaching "danger" or exuberance level at .50, in the .4 to .45 we often get mauled few days later.... Zeev

To: bobby beara who wrote (82747)	3/6/2002 11:19:20 PM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Actually, from your NASI + MA chart, it looks like the last time you had a bull crossover at this high a level (last August, looks like), it was a bad signal. Get some ambiguities if you throw up '99-'00 on the chart, too. Seems that the crossover signal is stronger at extreme levels (hardly unusual, as you will be aware). Incipient Connors VIX Reversal Type II sell also (VIX oversold, RSI of VIX ticking up from oversold). Hardly infallible, but the last sell signal was on 2/14 - and a pretty darn good one. Also - I'd post the charts but my home page seems to be down - if you plot volatility bands around an RSI on any major index, you'll get them way overbought (RSI now or very recently more than two standard deviations above central tendency) - usually a pretty good topping signal. When the reaction isn't immediate and more than a minor pullback, however, it does tend to suggest major running room. I'll stick to "staging," pullback more likely than not.