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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Warpfactor who wrote (12766)	3/7/2002 12:51:34 AM
From: pls418	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

warp I have a new indicator it's called the, what are friends for indicator. Me and some friends get together about every two weeks and talk stocks middle of last week I tried to talk them back into technology and of course they wouldn't budge and now they're like deer caught in the headlights trying to figure out what to do well when they move into technology they'll be telling me it's time for a correction and then when they're cussing and beginning to sell I'll know we are in for the second leg up finally when they re-enter the market with both feet it'll be time to sell and move elsewhere. I ask you now, what are friends for? I sold one-third of my WorldCom today was expecting a 30 percent profit but it was moving so good I just watched it got out at 8.85 for a 40 percent profit. Semiconductor's pulled back today so if the market drops tomorrow and brings the semiconductors down more I'm going to add to my CREE. Take care. Steve

To: Warpfactor who wrote (12766)	3/7/2002 12:58:13 AM
From: geode00	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

I do not remember hearing or reading about such a trade personally. It goes against everything BB has preached. That's the QQQ trade which I pointed out here: home.ix.netcom.com Since his most aggressive portfolio was 65% cash reserves at that point in time, 50% of 65% is 32.5% or, basically, 1/3rd of your portfolio. Bob uses the 4% rule for individual stocks not for exchange traded funds like the QQQs, SPY, DIA, etc. You're absolutely right that it doesn't sound like Bob. Some people thought (I didn't know those people at the time but I wish I had) it was a joke because it was so unexpected. However, when you look deeper into his record, there are many contradictions that are not apparent unless you are keeping detailed records. For example, he has always preached being your own financial advisor yet he is a principal in the BJGroup which is a wrap account firm. They charge 1.5%-2% or thereabouts to put your money into no load mutual funds (or QQQs) which is a pretty hefty yearly fee. I find that contradictory as he's always talking about saving a few basis points here and there on funds that are tax efficient, low cost, no load, etc. He also likes John Bogle but Bogle says he has never met a market timer who could consistently time the market. Bob's a self proclaimed market timer. That is contradictory. FWIW, I think you get the best advice from Bob through his free show. His newsletter, on the other hand, has been a disaster and he's getting ready to call buy/sell cyclical bulls for the next 8-18 years (I suppose it started in Q1 2000) of this (supposed) secular bear market. I figure that CBs are also counter trend rallies lasting from 6 months - 3 years. I don't see how they are much different from the 2-4 month QQQ CTR that was such a fiasco. They are longer but I don't see that much difference otherwise. Therefore, IMO, there is another potential disaster in the offing. It may not happen, he may get lucky and find the gold nugget the next time around...or not. Who knows?

To: Warpfactor who wrote (12766)	3/10/2002 10:45:05 AM
From: BigShoulders	Respond to of 23153

Re: It would be completely irresponsible for a conservative money investor to recommend trading the QQQ's to the tune of 32% of one's total portfolio - have to agree with you there. Warp: To clarify the record - Brinker recommended for Aggressive investors that 30-50% of Cash Reserves be put into QQQ. For conservative investors the recommendation was 20-30% of cash reserves. In the context of Brinker's recommendation, cash reserves is the portion of the individual's equity allocation that Brinker recommended to take off the table earlier in year 2000. At the time of the QQQ trade recommendation, 65% of the equity allocation was in cash reserves and 35% was still in equities. So, for an aggressive investor, Brinker recommended between 18.75 and 31.25% for the QQQ trade. For conservative investors it's between 13 and 18.75%. Keep in mind, the % of total assets would be lower, depending on the investor's asset allocation. For example if a conservative investor's asset allocation was 50% equity, 40% fixed, and 10% cash, then the conservative investor's total portfolio in the QQQ trade would be between 6.5% and 9.375%. This is far less exposure than 33%. That said, in hindsight it was a terrible recommendation. Also, recommending QQQ for a conservative investor is questionable. If you look at the return on Brinker's recommended portfolios since January 2000, when he recommended raising cash reserves, and then adjust for the QQQ trade in Oct 2000 (which Brinker doesn't include in the portfolio returns reported in his newsletter) they are not as disastrous as some would lead you to believe. In fact the returns are better than comparable benchmarks. If interested I could provide the stats. Regards BigShoulders